AWTM News and Press, Aware Ultra-Short Duration Enhanced Income

The markets don’t seem to be necessarily debating whether the U.S. economy will enter into a Fed-induced recession but rather just how shallow or deep any downturn may ultimately be. Yield curve may need to reveal a much more noteworthy inversion before signaling a recession co...

There has been a dramatic fall in Treasury yields in the past month and an equally dramatic fall in energy, metals, and agricultural commodities. The Ukraine situation holds many unknowns, as it is a major driver of financial markets and there is no end in sight as to when the fightin...

With prices rising 9.1% year-over-year and outpacing growth in wages, it may be like a recession for those who feel their purchasing power eroding. Thus far in 2022, employment growth has remained robust. With high inflation, it’s clear that consumers in the U.S. and many o...

The inflation fears led to concern that the Fed would raise interest rates by a full percent when they next meet and that in turn produced selling in stocks. Non-US stocks continue to struggle and that will probably be the case until the dollar comes back down. Economies are big c...

The US yield spread has inverted, and the 2-year yield is now higher than the 10-year yield. This phenomenon has been a well-known predictor of recessions. A yield spread inversion between the 10-year yield and 3-month yield has been a better predictor of recessions than the more popu...

With inflation running out of control and markets furiously attempting to re-price Federal Reserve interest rate policy, we’re seeing some truly wild moves in the fixed income markets. The bulk of the flattening in the 3m10y curve has occurred more recently. Prior to the cu...

As of today, the percentage of inverted points on the yield curve reached the YTD highs seen in mid-June of 17.9%. Following the first inversion in at least one year when a recession did follow, it has taken an average of 271 trading days to officially enter a recession. The short...

The employment report released last Friday was better than expected, but the response by bulls and bears alike was exactly as expected. The employment report was indeed better than expected, the gain of 372k jobs well in excess of expectations of 240k. The bulls were quick to poin...

Once the COVID distortions are over the economy will return to its previous state of roughly 2% growth and 2% inflation. Real sales of durable goods surged throughout COVID but accelerated rapidly with stimulus payments; sales peaked right as Biden’s American Rescue Act was imp...

Anchored by the deflationary experiences of the last decade, the Fed waited until headline CPI inflation had hit 7.9% before it finally started tightening monetary policy. This delayed response has permitted inflation expectations to rise and wage growth pressures to increase. Monetar...