BBSC News and Press, JPMorgan BetaBuilders U.S. Small Cap Equity ETF From 12/11/22

Summary Year-over-year CPI is backing off its June highs of 9.1%, prompting the Fed to slow its pace of rate hikes. Currently at 3.78%, Morgan Stanley forecasts a peak Fed Funds rate of 4.5-4.75%. Though a soft landing may be possible with a continued tight labor market and an early...

Summary A 50bp hike is widely expected, given high inflation and a tight jobs market, but the market is pricing in a recession, and falling Treasury yields and a weakening dollar are undermining the Fed’s efforts to dampen price pressures. A hawkish Fed message will likely fall o...

Summary The current anti-business backdrop will continue to be an overhang for the U.S. economy. Market participants are facing a complex scene, and I repeat "we have never been here before". A "mild" recession doesn't necessarily mean a short-duration BEAR market. Consumer sent...

Summary Monetary tightening is aimed at slowing demand growth relative to aggregate supply, which will require a sustained period of below-trend US economic growth. The stakes are split between those who think FOMC rates will go up to 5% or more before a break. It is in the labor ma...

Summary Recession likely but shortlived. Inflation higher for longer. 3-year T bond rate of 7% in the cards. But real GDP should grow 2% year over year and S&P 500 revenues will match. Companies will maintain profit margins by cutting staff. As I write, the S&a...

Summary The strong dollar rally was something I suggested could be a problem for stocks, given what happened in 2020. In 2021, the dollar decline provided a tailwind to stocks. 2022 was an excellent example of when correlations fail. Will a dollar decline be good for stock...

Summary The market rallied ~18% in 12 months following midterm election. The Jobs Report was stronger than expected (more jobs and higher wage growth but lower hours). Those calling for a recession may be right, but with a 25% peak-to-trough move in the S&P, much of the pain (to...

Summary From a year ago, total consumer credit is up 8.1 percent, the fastest pace since November 2011. As of the second quarter, the financial obligations ratio was 14.27 percent, up from 14.24 percent in the prior quarter. Total consumer credit rose again in October on gains in re...

Summary Preliminary December results from University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers show overall consumer sentiment improved for the month but remains near historically low levels. According to the report, “Consumer sentiment rose 4% above November, recovering most of the losse...

Summary The December Preliminary Report came in at 56.8, down 3.1 (5.2%) from the November Final. Consumer sentiment rose 4% above November, recovering most of the losses from November but remaining low from a historical perspective. Year-ahead inflation expectations improved consid...