BIBL News and Press, Inspire 100 From 01/05/21

This is the most difficult year in many decades to write one of these. Never before have both the macro and finance environments been so exceptional. The biggest unknown for 2021 is what happens to the giant household savings bubble. There are a very wide range of possible outcomes ba...

From a financial perspective, the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 index, finished the year at another mind-boggling, all-time record high (+16% for the year), making 2020 a tough act to follow. Exploring the factors behind the unprecedented collapse early in the year and ...

As COVID-19 vaccines are broadly distributed, I expect the economic recovery to be far more robust and inclusive than the economic recovery coming out of the Global Financial Crisis. The S&P 500 Index may have another double-digit return in 2021, with vaccine distribution beginnin...

After closing below $92 in late November, the US dollar index is now fathoming its next test at the 88-89 level. As extreme bullish equity sentiment and valuations suggest the COVID-19 pandemic and global recession are done and dusted, the reality is much less sanguine. At this po...

Political Calculations' initial estimate of median household income of in November 2020 is $66,167, an increase of $101 (or 0.15%) above the initial estimate of $66,066 for October 2020. The latest update to the chart tracking Median Household Income in the 21st Century shows a contin...

It was a good week, up 4 out of 5 days. But momentum was probably dampened by the weak employment report last Thursday and the spiking COVID-19 cases, not to mention the disputed election results. The market today is 172% above its long-term mean. This is higher than it was at the top...

Both the US and international economies are once again accelerating, and inflation has returned across many asset classes. This combination - along with a continued accommodative Federal Reserve weakening the US dollar - bodes well for our investments for the foreseeable future. O...

We share three key lessons we learned from 2020 – and how they inform our 2021 outlook. The UK and European Union agreed on a trade deal. The U.S. launched a new $900 billion fiscal package amid climbing Covid hospitalizations and deaths. This week’s U.S. nonfarm pay...

For asset prices, 2020 was a nightmare of a year, turned into a great year. It was perhaps weirdest because the instability came from out of nowhere. It was a truly exogenous shock to the economy in that it was more like a meteor than a boom/bust cycle. However, it wasn't likely t...

Key indicators tracked by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee continue to show mixed behavior. Monthly GDP declined in November, joining personal income ex.-transfers in its decline. The Bloomberg consensus for nonfarm payroll employment for December is for an increase of onl...