BIBL News and Press, Inspire 100 From 06/08/21

The wind-down of the Fed’s $13.8 billion portfolio of corporate bond holdings and ETFs should have a limited effect on the market, as the purchases did not last for long or amount to that much. We think that spreads could widen slightly, but the market will not have that much d...

We expect the European Central Bank to maintain its current pace of asset purchases even though the economic restart is gaining momentum. U.S. nonfarm payrolls growth picked up in May. We caution against extrapolating too much from erratic near-term data amid a powerful restart. U...

The VIX has hurtled lower, to just over 15, and at this rate, it will soon be in the low teens. The same is the case for the MOVE index for fixed-income volatility, which is also now clearly driving lower, hitting a 13-month low of 53.4 in May. I suspect vol selling will remain lu...

This has been a run in stocks from the March lows, all while without even really experiencing the usually recession beforehand. That run has been coupled with record revisions of earning forecasts, setting us up for what would seem to be an inevitable fall. However, markets can trend ...

Over the last few weeks, we discussed the ongoing “buy signals” suggesting the market could retest all-time highs. That occurred this week. While the markets could undoubtedly break out to new highs next week, the upside remains limited. Such is due to the weekly signal,...

We got another disappointing employment report last week. The US economy added 559,000 jobs in May, which was below expectations and disappointing. There are certainly remaining supply-side issues in the economy, which is what we should expect in a recovery from a supply shock. The pr...

Since offshoring contributed to the long-term disinflationary trend, it would seem to make sense that reshoring would contribute to an inflationary trend. The "reshoring will lead to higher inflation" argument revolves around differences in labor costs, which are much higher in the US...

The Global Market Index’s (GMI) expected risk premium held steady at 5.9% annualized in May, matching the previous month’s estimate. The framework for estimating equilibrium returns was initially outlined in a 1974 paper by Professor Bill Sharpe. Keep in mind, too, t...

One factor behind the long disinflationary trend since the early 1990s has been offshoring of manufacturing, especially to China. Thus, it would seem to make sense that reshoring would produce an inflationary trend. This line of thinking is flawed for multiple reasons. In this art...

Trading by calendar rules - or any other form of market timing - tends to be a loser’s game. The month of May has historically been flat for stocks, and this May was no exception. The S&P 500 rose just 0.47% this May. Although the Dow rose 1.93%, Nasdaq fell -1.53%, so May ...