BIBL News and Press, Inspire 100 From 07/19/21

A series of new all-time index highs but no popping of corks. A flight to safety goes on under the surface - a 1.25% yield on the 10-year Treasury July 7, coupled with a "risk-off" 7% drop in the Russell 2K since July 1. Are we headed for an economic slowdown or recession? This qu...

While the economic growth rate is slowing, that is not a contraction or a recession. If that was the case, you’d see junk bonds selling off too, and that just isn’t the case - at least not yet. Our investment process puts a lot of emphasis on rates of change, whether mac...

The world economy has performed about as well as could be expected, if one takes as given the pandemic and the inadequate public health response. Global growth in 2020 was negative 3.3 per cent, which is very low historically. But the economic outlook is stronger now than one would ha...

One of the biggest challenges an investor faces right now is what to do with the US stock market. It is expensive, but the US government and the Fed seem willing to do anything to keep the market from crashing. What has previously happened to the US stock market when US inflation ...

The U.S. has experienced three months in a row of elevated - and rising - consumer inflation rates. Monetary policy has broken down and is scarcely able to translate central bank actions into the Main Street economy. Fiscal policy is more unproductive than productive, and the more...

The current trailing US EV/EBITDA at 17.2x is very high compared to its 10x average since 1990. This gives most value investors pause, but momentum investors are following this trend. Any investor who believes in the concept of reversion to the mean will be terrified by how clearly ov...

The likelihood of 7% GDP growth (best since 1984) or even 8% (best since 1951) this year is fantastic. But there is increasing evidence that this is a “K”-shaped recovery, with the wealthy reaping stock market and real estate rewards while many small businesses have gone...

The best news last week was the continuing decline in global bond yields, including the 10-year Treasury rate falling below 1.4% last Tuesday. If and when the Fed decides to raise key short-term interest rates, I don’t think they will be able to raise rates by much, since the f...

On average, stocks in “value” funds have materially lower price/earnings ratios than “growth” funds, the justification for the latter’s higher P/E being that they produce higher earnings. They also appear to be more predictable. Most of the US and mu...

This market has been like a roller coaster since Memorial Day. The sector rotation has been the biggest churn. The biggest concern at the moment for longer-term investors, and in particular retirees, is the possibility of higher inflation on the horizon. The housing market, the jo...