BIBL News and Press, Inspire 100 From 05/05/22

Beyond the broad S&P benchmark, 45% of NASDAQ 100 stocks are already off more than 50%, which only happened as part of the larger-than-historically-average bear markets of 2000-02 and 2008-09. The last eight times the S&P 500 was down in a calendar year, bonds finished the yea...

The expected risk premium continued sliding in April for the Global Markets Index (GMI). Tuesday’s revision reflects a drop to a 5.4% annualized increase for the long term – a relatively large cut of 40 basis points from last month’s estimate. The forecast ref...

Inflation expectations have kept the Federal Reserve center stage as they commenced their interest rate rising cycle in March. The war in Ukraine and Omicron’s spread in China impacted inflation and supply chains differently, but both delay supply chain normalization. Regar...

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index ticked slightly higher in March to an annualized 5.8% pace, fractionally above last month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors (defined below) to adjust the forecast trims GMI&#...

Pick any barometer of costs these days, and the story is the same: Prices are up - and in a dramatic fashion. The first thing that jumps out is the dismal performance of most asset classes during periods of low growth and high inflation - otherwise known as stagflation. A solid fo...

Emerging Markets are outperforming the rest of the world, due in large part to windfall profits in the commodities-exporting countries of South America and the Middle East. If you want to follow the money, this is a good place to start. Money has been flowing out of tech, consumer dis...

As the world reels from the crisis, the blowback is rippling across the world economy and markets. The current risk premia analysis implicitly recommends managing expectations down for GMI and other global multi-asset-class portfolios. The mean reversion factor is estimated as the...

Larger companies have the advantage of scale, pricing power, greater ability to pass on higher costs to consumers, and stronger negotiating power with suppliers to name a few. Net profit will be an area looked at closely given the potential for multiple Fed rate hikes which will incre...

Canada sheds 200,000 jobs in January amid omicron wave. U.S. consumer prices rise at fastest rate in 40 years. Are brighter days ahead for U.S. small cap stocks? For further details see: Red-Hot: U.S. Inflation Surges At Blistering Pace

While US large caps have also struggled lately, they’ve fared far better than their smaller counterparts. Over the past year, much of the Russell 1000’s outperformance is attributable to its bigger exposures to technology and consumer discretionary industries. The sm...