BKT News and Press, BlackRock Income Trust Inc. From 05/30/19

Unlike most articles that have the President's name in the title, this note will not be political in nature but rather will discuss some facts regarding the trade dispute with China and our trading relationship with the rest of the world. I want to outline one of the problems that the admini...

As many long-term followers of my economic research are well aware, I have been a bull on Treasury bonds since 2017, citing slower economic growth and weaker inflation. Interest Rates Will Always Follow Nominal GDP Growth Trends: Source: BEA, FRED, BLS, EPB Macro Research I started...

The U.S. economy now appears to be heading into Quad 4 market scare. In our model, Quad 4 is an environment of U.S growth slowing, inflation slowing . That spells trouble ahead for the market. And so the question becomes, how will the Federal Reserve react? And how fast? In this ...

Barring a dramatic turn, May will be the worst month of 2019 for many major global benchmarks. Indeed, it will likely be the first down month of the year for stocks. The proximate cause is obvious: The trade war between the world's two largest economies is back on. The re-escalation of trade...

Right now, the Federal Reserve seems to be doing very well. Because the Federal Reserve seems to be dong very well and seems to be controlling the situation, the value of the US dollar has strengthened this year and shows many signs of moving even higher. The value of the US dollar is an i...

The BCI at 257.7 is below last week's upward revised 258.8, and is below the previous high of this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 89.8. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 14.2 is below last week’s 14.2. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp n...

In the past few years, I wrote a lot about the unprecedented credit crisis I foresee. I call it “The Great Reset.” I have to add, it isn’t what I think the future should look like or what I want to see. But almost the entire developed world has painted itself into a...

Last year saw something exceedingly rare. For a period of 9 months there were exclusively rate hikes by the major central banks we monitor. But this period of tightening is turning, and now rate cuts are beginning to dominate again. If this was an important chart last year, you better believe ...

Treasury yields are likely at a temporary sticking point, waiting for the next catalyst to move yields materially in either direction. When I talk about yields being at an important level, it should not be confused with technical analysis. I don't use technical analysis in my approach. The ec...

We didn't know what we thought we knew. As far as market participants understood it, a Sino-US trade pact was a done deal. Last year's escalations gave way to a steady stream of recycled headlines about "progress" in 2019. Talks are always "constructive", according to Steve Mnuchin. China i...