BSJN News and Press, Invesco BulletShares 2023 High Yield Corporate Bon From 01/22/23

Summary The current slope of the US Treasury yield curve is inverted. Two-year yields are higher than 10-year yields, and to us that means that investors are focused on a few things. We’re starting to see a slowdown in interest-rate-sensitive sectors, most pronounced in US housin...

Summary Stocks don’t bottom until central banks have slashed short rates enough to drop them back below long, re-steepening the curve to positive sloping once more. HY bond prices typically bottom with equities once HY yield spreads have reached 800+ bps above similar-term treasu...

Summary Following a protracted period of rate hikes that began in March 2022, both bond yields and yield spreads are at multi-year highs. Strong fundamentals are due in part to fiscal prudence necessitated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The European Central Bank has concluded its myriad ...

Summary At 429 basis points, the spread of the major junk bond index to Treasuries is dangerously close to the “inside 400” level, which is where it spends most of its time in a booming economy. I would not call the U.S. economy “booming,” as there has been a...

Summary Stocks and bonds rallied as the Fed’s Whip Inflation Now project seems to be finally bearing some fruit. The slowdown in goods spending over the last year has been modest but entirely expected and offset by a rise in services spending. The Fed has spent the last year ...

Summary Markets may be underestimating the stickiness of inflation and central banks’ determination to beat it - and what that means for growth and corporate earnings potential. We favor fixed income and credit over equities, and investment grade over high yield. Should infla...

Summary Bonds were yielding nothing or just next to it for some time now, and didn’t seem to represent a decent investment opportunity. The Fed, in their meanderings, have changed all of this, and bonds are beginning to get more interesting lately. High-yield bonds are now on...

Summary Top-down and bottom-up forecasts are increasingly diverging, and we think 2023 will be largely about how these divergences resolve themselves. In commodities, after a major spike in 2022, top-down commentators point to slowing growth and inflation, and the historical pattern of ...

Summary As central banks battled inflation, interest rates soared and recession fears mounted. Now, central banks must slow their pace of tightening and carefully calibrate a soft landing. We address the challenges of a global slowdown, the benefits of higher yields and strategies f...

Summary An all-time low in interest rates was reached when the Fed cut the fed funds rate to approximately zero in late 2008 in an effort to pull the economy out of the GFC. The Fed deemed the inflation “transitory,” it continued its policies of low-interest rates and quan...