CCRV News and Press, ISHARES US ETF TR From 02/04/23

Summary Three of the major investment themes of 2022 were: inflation and central bank responses; commodity and energy price spikes; and the China COVID lockdown. We discuss how each of these will likely play out in 2023. Our general market view for the year ahead is relatively sanguine,...

Summary December was a mixed month for commodity index strategies overall. Natural gas was the strongest commodity for most index strategies. The precious metals sector was the strongest performing sector in December, rising over 5%. Natural Gas Contributes From Rebalance ...

Summary Markets may be underestimating the stickiness of inflation and central banks’ determination to beat it - and what that means for growth and corporate earnings potential. We favor fixed income and credit over equities, and investment grade over high yield. Should infla...

Summary In this post, we provide our key assumptions and outlook for 2023. We are relatively more optimistic than most, as we believe that we are already in the mid-late innings of this downturn. We believe that stabilizing interest rates will provide a base for valuations and expec...

Summary On a coincident basis, driven by a historically tight labour market and robust industrial production growth, the US economy remains deceptively strong despite negative real incomes and tight financial conditions. However, the leading indicators of the business cycle continue to ...

Summary Over the last year, major changes occurred, so 2023 will be about managing and reacting to the changes that arrived. As we enter 2023, the pessimism of 2022 may shift to optimism, as economies and markets adapt to the major changes thrust upon them in the year just passed. E...

Summary Top-down and bottom-up forecasts are increasingly diverging, and we think 2023 will be largely about how these divergences resolve themselves. In commodities, after a major spike in 2022, top-down commentators point to slowing growth and inflation, and the historical pattern of ...

Summary Avoiding growth last year paid enormous dividends, but I didn’t predict that growth stocks would fall in 2022, just that I couldn’t own them and fulfill our fiduciary duty. Near-term stock market performance is negatively correlated with economic growth. Commod...

Summary 2023 has come in like an ongoing bear for stocks and commodities, while government bonds have seen their best start to any new year in more than 20 years. Stocks remain especially vulnerable since, even with last year’s drubbing, they enter 2023 still at the high end of h...

Summary Inflation and central bank policy will likely continue being key focus points for investors. 2023 may not see a repeat of the frantic Federal Reserve activity that characterized 2022, but policy rates almost certainly still have further to rise. While 2023, with its challeng...