DBP News and Press, Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund From 09/23/22

Summary Federal Reserve meeting was held this week and the committee headed by Chair Jerome Powell concluded by announcing a 0.75% interest rate hike. "No one knows whether that process will lead to a recession or how significant a recession it will be," Powell said. "I don't know...

Summary Gold has consistently traded below its 50-DMA over the past few months, while the 200-DMA is fairly flat. Over the past several days, it has been trending sideways right near 52-week lows. Silver rallied in the first half of September, moving back above its 50-DMA in the p...

Summary September gold has been a very strong delivery month with 8,573 contracts being delivered plus an additional 718 in open interest that will be delivered over the next week (9,219 total). Jumping ahead to October shows a slight elevation in open interest contracts relative ...

Summary Through the month of September, we've been on "Crash Watch" over concerns that a global equity market drop could lead to a liquidity-driven margin call across all asset classes. The watch continues through this week's FOMC meeting and then into October. The major drive...

Summary Over the last month, gold has seen Registered fall by 10.2%, or 1.4M ounces. Silver has seen massive outflows MoM with 3 vaults seeing almost 10% or more reduction. There are now 3.4 paper contracts for each ounce of Registered gold within the Comex vaults. ...

Summary The "smart money" commercial traders increased their long positions as silver prices hit new lows for the year to start the month. Silver's recent outperformance is good news for precious metals bulls. If silver prices can continue to rally and break above the $20 leve...

Summary The first half of the year saw GDP contract slightly and GDI expand slightly, and I interpret that as little to no growth. The money market futures I follow and the market based models I track all put the peak in rates somewhere between March and June of next year. I d...

Summary Gold got hammered this week following the higher-than-expected CPI. Funds are net short Gold for the first time since 2019, when Gold was bottoming out in the 1200s. The 10-Year nominal yield just hit a negatively divergent double top at ~3.50, with the risk of a few m...

Summary The market is telegraphing that what the Fed is planning to do is potentially destructive to the economy. Why does the Fed still think the only way to lower inflation is to undermine the economy? That's Phillips Curve thinking, and it has been debunked countless times. ...

Summary Growing short interest in SLV reflects a retail and institutional demand to bet on lower silver prices in the months ahead, and it is almost always a good contrarian indicator. At some point, Large Speculators will be forced to buy back and cover short positions. Silve...