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Editor's note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on May 14, 2019. [This blog post is an excerpt from a recent TSI commentary] Here is our monthly update on what's happening on the monetary inflation front in a few different regions/countries. The G2 (US plus euro-zone) monetary ...

Census has released the current consumer price index numbers for the United States . The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.4 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported t...

Last year saw something exceedingly rare. For a period of 9 months there were exclusively rate hikes by the major central banks we monitor. But this period of tightening is turning, and now rate cuts are beginning to dominate again. If this was an important chart last year, you better believe ...

By Douglas J. Peebles Risk assets have bounced back this year after a dreadful finish in 2018, with a big assist from the US central bank. But are markets overlooking the potential for problems down the road? A lot seems to be going right in 2019. Policy stimulus appears to have preempte...

Straggler behind the Fed and the ECB gets the drift Total assets on the balance sheet of the Bank of Japan at the end of April ticked up from March but were flat with the record in February: ¥562 trillion ($5.1 trillion). This amounts to a gigantic 102.2% of nominal GDP. But the BOJ...

Treasury yields are likely at a temporary sticking point, waiting for the next catalyst to move yields materially in either direction. When I talk about yields being at an important level, it should not be confused with technical analysis. I don't use technical analysis in my approach. The ec...

We didn't know what we thought we knew. As far as market participants understood it, a Sino-US trade pact was a done deal. Last year's escalations gave way to a steady stream of recycled headlines about "progress" in 2019. Talks are always "constructive", according to Steve Mnuchin. China i...

Recent U.S. inflation reports, including the latest Consumer Price Index ((CPI)) release , lend support to Federal Reserve officials' statements that various factors unrelated to the business cycle have depressed inflation over the past several months, and that these factors should fade over ...

By James Smith , Developed Markets Economist US inflation back to target, but it won't help market pessimism US headline CPI has nudged back up to the 2% target for the first time since November, helped along by the 30% rise in gasoline prices since the low at the start of the year. B...

Posted by James Ong, Director, Derivative Portfolio Management on May 9, 2019, in Fixed Income Taken together, the recent combination of testimony, press releases, and other communications suggest that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may be considering a shift to average inflation t...