DLBS News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP ETN REDEEM 13/08/2020 USD 50 - Ser A 06740L444 From 01/23/19

To be an interested observer of things in the summer of 2013 was to be awash in the awareness of so many contradictions packed into one little piece of history. Forward guidance, for one, recognized the effects of markets. If QE was really effective, interest rates would rise not fall in antic...

By Landon Whaley Investors are paying attention to the wrong aspect of the Federal Reserve policy. I've seen enough Fed soundbites from both hawks and doves over the last few weeks to last me a lifetime. However, as is usually the case, people are focused on the wrong aspect of monetary po...

Everyone knows the message of the yield curve, right? An inverted yield curve is an absolutely reliable indicator that a recession is coming in about 12 to 24 months. A positively sloped yield curve means that no recession is on the horizon. So riddle me this: what does it mean when one re...

By Barkley Rosser This is a situation that may be on the verge of disappearing and more or less normalizing, but over the last couple of months US bond markets have exhibited a weird phenomenon of non-monotonicity. It has been even weirder than what we saw during the period of negative nom...

Whether you are a businessman or an ordinary citizen concerned about what’s going on in the world, the yield curve is something you should care about. The yield curve is probably the single best indicator of where markets are headed, perhaps the best indicator of an upcoming recession. ...

The business cycle has its stages, and they're usually both predictable and logical. For example, governments tend to generate a lot of tax revenue late in an expansion as more people get jobs and start paying income taxes and rising stock prices generate big capital gains. Meanwhile, less has...