DOG News and Press, ProShares Short Dow30

The core rate of U.S. inflation on both the consumer and wholesale level has been steadily declining since March. In light of the Supreme Court’s recent decision to curb the EPA’s power, the SEC’s new climate disclosures are expected to be aggressively challenged ...

Recession risk is rising, which inevitably leads to a discussion and debate about what exactly defines such an event. NBER is widely admired as the gold standard for identifying the start and end dates of US economic contractions. We can look (slightly) ahead to the immediate futu...

Bear markets result from market transactions based on investment outlooks which are sometimes wrong. Most often bear markets lead to recessions, but not always. Nothing very good or bad came to investors’ attention from the news last week. The news about employment, inflation, ...

The employment report released last Friday was better than expected, but the response by bulls and bears alike was exactly as expected. The employment report was indeed better than expected, the gain of 372k jobs well in excess of expectations of 240k. The bulls were quick to poin...

The revised long-term outlook projects an annualized return of 4.9%. The current risk premium forecast for GMI suggests that multi-asset-class strategies overall will generate lower returns relative to results posted in recent years. Combining forecasts via several models may prov...

A recession is not defined as two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP, though that’s a common rule of thumb. Real GDP dropped 1,6% in the first quarter of 2022. Second quarter estimates will be released in late July, with revisions in August and September as more data be...

On July 1, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta lowered its Q2 GDP projection to -2.1%, officially forecasting a recession. If the Atlanta Fed’s projection of negative growth in Q2 comes to pass, it will couple with the first quarter decline of -1.6% to put the US economy solidl...

Once the COVID distortions are over the economy will return to its previous state of roughly 2% growth and 2% inflation. Real sales of durable goods surged throughout COVID but accelerated rapidly with stimulus payments; sales peaked right as Biden’s American Rescue Act was imp...

Anchored by the deflationary experiences of the last decade, the Fed waited until headline CPI inflation had hit 7.9% before it finally started tightening monetary policy. This delayed response has permitted inflation expectations to rise and wage growth pressures to increase. Monetar...

A broad range of data suggests recession risks in the U.S. are mounting. Stocks currently remain under selling pressure due to a variety of issues causing a repricing of valuations. Investing during a recession can be dangerous, particularly when elevated valuations are present ac...