DOG News and Press, ProShares Short Dow30 From 03/29/22

The odds of a US economic contraction in the immediate future remain low, but blowback from the Ukraine war and elevated inflation risk could quickly change the calculus. Incoming data in the weeks ahead could be unusually critical inputs for deciding how or if to change the current l...

Most of the stocks we are adding now are prospering from the current inflationary environment that accelerated after Russia invaded Ukraine. As investors seek inflation hedges that can prosper from stagflation, stocks remain our best bet. Specifically, commodity-related companies - as...

The blowback from the war in Ukraine has only just started to rock the global economy, but the early clues for the US remain encouraging. An added factor of uncertainty, some economists advise, is changes in the forces of growth and contraction. So far, however, there are reasons ...

The difference between the current correction and a bear market is the presence of a recession. If you think the economy will avoid a recession, you should “BTFD.” If not, you should “STFR” and reduce your risk exposure. there are many reasons to suspec...

Does a recession call rise to the level of a high-confidence forecast? No, not yet. Hedging one’s bets on the business cycle for the US is, for now, rational. It would be naïve to assume that all is well and that recession risk is destined to remain low for the foresee...

The economy is running hot, and it takes time for those rate hikes to take effect and cool down inflation. According to our options research, we have entered positive gamma again. Positive gamma is when things become less volatile and we are more apt to see a slow upward grind in the ...

The rally in stocks this past week was largely driven by options expiration and re-pricing of volatility. This rally should fade early this coming week, as hawkish Fed fears return. Additionally, the Fed wants tighter financial conditions, and that will not be conducive to a stock...

It was more like a natural disaster or an exogenous shock to the economy because of the way the government shut down so much of the economy. Two indications that are worrisome are energy price surges and the flattening yield curve. Understanding that 60/40 isn’t necessarily...

Oil price shocks become deflationary because they trigger demand destruction and economic contraction, especially when the shock coincides with a leap in the cost of food, shelter, and other staples. The Canadian Petrodollar has been diving against the greenback over the last year, ev...

The economic outlook for 2022 and 2023 in the United States is good, though inflation will remain high and storm clouds grow in later years. Economic growth will be pushed up by past stimulus, both fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus. Inflation will remain high this year and nex...