DPU News and Press, DB Commodity Long ETN From 05/20/21

I am now arguing that we are in the early stages of a monetary policy mistake that the Fed is committing. I first cover the state of fiscal policy, which has deteriorated like never before. Spending is essentially out of control and off the charts. Inflation is fully expected to a...

Commodity prices lead inflation expectations, and inflation readings are a lagging economic indicator. After an 8.7% annualized GDP growth rate between 2008 and 2013, China’s growth target over the next 5 years has dropped to 5.3%. The other major reason we suspect inflatio...

The near-term outlook for inflation continues to suggest a temporary spike, reflecting an adjustment higher in price levels as the global economy recovers from the effects of the pandemic. In Europe, we expect GDP to normalize to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, with inflation remaining l...

By Erik Norland and Blu PutnamCommodities supercycles of the 1970s and 1990s had major economic and monetary drivers, but it’s unclear if such a driver exists today. The Bloomberg and S&P-Goldman Sachs commodity indexes have risen sharply, though it could be years before a ...

A rising trend in the money-supply growth rate leads to increased consumption and investment spending, ushering in the boom phase of the cycle. Once a boom is set in motion by creating lots of money out of nothing, a painful bust that eliminates all or most the boom's apparent gains i...

The tech-heavy NASDAQ index has lost lift relative to the older-economy Dow Jones Industrial Average since April 21. Other recent risk-market leaders are also showing weakness. The risk rally has had one hell of a run, but if "reopening" mania is finally coming off the boil, we sh...

Today's post rolls out the inaugural Risk Review column for the major asset classes, a monthly update that's the companion piece to the monthly performance report and risk-premia estimates. Risk analysis is a broad and deep subject and so this monthly update will be no one's idea of a...

April delivered across-the-board gains in the major asset classes as risk-assets around the world rebounded from widespread losses in March. The lead performer in April: broadly defined commodities, which surged 8.3% via the Bloomberg Commodity Index. The worst performer last mont...

What do commodity prices tell us about inflation? Sometimes a lot, sometimes a little. Some commodities are driven by broader economic forces and tell us more about the prospects for overall inflation. High commodity prices can only be sustained by the demand that the prices antic...

Near-record supply chain disruption has led to fastest rise in global input prices since August 2008. Higher costs were passed through to clients at sharpest pace for over a decade in March. Shipping delays, elevated transport costs and higher commodity prices likely to feed throu...