DTUL News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP REDEEM 13/08/2020 USD 50 - Ser A 06740L469 From 04/17/19

By Kevin Flanagan If bond investors have learned anything this year, it is that the "winds of change" can blow in dramatically different directions regarding monetary policy. As the first quarter was coming to a close, many wondered where a rate cut would more likely come from, the U.S. or...

Six Months of Flattening I’ve been publishing on the yield curve since November, and in that time, the curve has undergone some changes. All yield data comes from your good friends, the economists at the US Treasury . For some time, the most obvious feature of the curve was...

There was a time when "price stability" - that is, money that buys the same amount of stuff every year - was considered a good thing. But as debts began to pile up around the world, it became clear to policymakers that managing that debt required money that got a little less valuable over time...

Extreme monetary accommodation and share buybacks have extended the last three economic expansion cycles since 1991, but magnified savings and investment deficits through the economy at the same time. For one important example see WSJ : Long Bull Market has failed to fix Public Pensions. Pe...

Over the past decade, inflation has persistently undershot the Fed's inflation target. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE deflator, has averaged 1.56 percent over this time compared to a target of 2 percent. The Fed officially began inflation targeting in 2012, but was impl...

It happens whenever there's a sharp rise in gasoline or oil prices. Pundits focus on the increases and cry foul if broad inflation gauges don't confirm the price hikes at the pump. But it's short-sighted to assume that a spike in energy prices will automatically lead to higher inflation overal...

I have been on the verge of writing this commentary for quite some time. The more that I thought it through though, the more complicated it seemed to become, and the more I felt like there were loose ends to my reasoning. I did not wish to leave any loose ends dangling here, like some "hanging...

Jeff explains that bonds appear to be back to playing their traditional role as diversifiers against stock downturns. But a look back in history reveals that inflation may be key to how well this relationship holds up in the future. The first 3 months of 2019 have been busy for bonds. Glob...

There are no extreme "fixes" to secular declines in sales, profits, employment, tax revenues and asset prices. The saying "never let a crisis go to waste" embodies several truths worth pondering as the stock market nears new highs. One truth is that extreme policies that would raise obje...

Yield Curve Inverts On March 22nd of this year, financial news outlets reported the first yield curve inversion since 2007 (see chart below). A yield curve represents interest rates, at a point in time, across treasury securities of varying maturities. A normal curve slopes consistently up...