DTUL News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP REDEEM 13/08/2020 USD 50 - Ser A 06740L469 From 05/31/19

By Pater Tenebrarum Money Supply Growth Continues to Decelerate Here is a brief update of recent developments in US true money supply growth as well as the trend in the ratio of industrial production of capital goods versus consumer goods (we use the latter as a proxy for the effects o...

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) piled on more bad news to the otherwise pleasing GDP headline for the first quarter. In its first revision to the preliminary estimate, the government agency said output advanced just a little less than first thought. This wasn't actually the substance of ...

The past year, 2018, is looking more and more likely to be the year of the peak in this last credit cycle. When I say credit cycle, I'm talking about overall credit. Based on the senior loan officer survey, which is a quarterly survey sent to US domestic banks asking about loan demand and th...

Back in the 1980s and 1990s, many people thought excessive government spending and the resulting debt would bring inflation or even hyperinflation. We wanted a hawkish Federal Reserve or, better yet, a gold standard to prevent it. Reality turned out differently. Federal debt rose steadily,...

Unlike most articles that have the President's name in the title, this note will not be political in nature but rather will discuss some facts regarding the trade dispute with China and our trading relationship with the rest of the world. I want to outline one of the problems that the admini...

We see income, or carry, reasserting itself as the key driver of bond market returns. Scott explains. Coupon income historically has contributed the lion's share of total returns across global fixed income markets. Yet declining yields this year elevated the role of capital appreciation in...

Where's the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield going? This is the most common question I get from both institutional and advisor clients. It's a question we'd all like to know the answer to - and one you might expect a bond manager like me to answer. It's like asking a stock-picker where the S&am...

Scarcely a day goes by without a flood of new articles in the financial media expressing shock and disbelief over Treasury yields. It's not just that they are wrong, these say, it's that they have to be wrong. What they are implying just isn't compatible with the what "everyone" is expecte...

A number of recent articles suggest that Chinese officials may reduce their purchases of U.S. government bonds. It is very unlikely that China can do so in any meaningful way, because doing so would almost certainly be costly for Beijing. And even if China took this step, it would have either...

If, ten years ago, I had told you that there were going to be negative yielding bonds you would have thought, "Poor Mark, he has lost his mind." Well, ten years ago I did not say it, and now we are all faced with a $10.475 trillion reality of bonds with negative yields. This has all been cause...