DTYL News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP ETN REDEEM 13/08/2020 USD 50 - Ser A 06740L493 From 07/17/19

By James L. Caton Much drama has surrounded the Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell in recent months. Some leading indicators may be signalling a coming recession. In particular, a deepening inversion of the yield curve is cause for concern. Pressure is mounting from President Trump...

The data is improving and that should be a good thing. I've variously argued (both on this platform and on my site) that the most important takeaway from last week was also the simplest. US equities hit new highs even has bond yields rose. Here's a simple chart I used in my traditional Su...

By Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. Ohio State's Woody Hayes used to say that his problem with the forward pass was that "Three things can happen, and two of them are bad." Well, after Chairman Powell's testimony last week, the FOMC may find itself in a similar position, only maybe worse. The Commi...

The market is now at record highs, and unemployment is way down. Even so, a U.S. rate cut is expected as early as this week. During his congressional testimony last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell raised concerns over slower global growth and trade tensions, which in turn have con...

There are growing signs that the global economic slowdown is for real. As was the case in 1929, the combination of the peak of the credit cycle coupled with trade protectionism in the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act are similar conditions to those of today and potentially pose a serious economic chall...

The interest rate outlook has swung sharply since November 2018, with mainstream expectations now a full percentage point lower than they had been. For short-term interest rates (Federal Funds), the Wall Street Journal 's latest survey of economists shows average expectations of just two pe...

I said my peace on what I consider to be the big market stories last week, so I won’t belabour bonds and equities too much this week. FX markets, however, could well be the driver of the NarrativeTM in the next few months, at least judging by the rustling of the grapevine. This story ...

By James Cielinski, CFA Jim Cielinski, Global Head of Fixed Income, provides his perspective on some of the key macroeconomic factors that are driving fixed income markets. Transcript Jim Cielinski : Does the slowdown that we are seeing reflect the fading globalization? I think i...

Like a shark smelling blood in the water, I don't care that the blood is in the water from leaking out of what will be a dead horse, if it isn't deceased already. I pretty much intend to beat on it one way or another. The issue isn't just fed funds, it's why anyone cares about that market at a...

Here is my monthly inflation update. We continue along in the same pattern. This month, there was a bit of a bump in non-shelter inflation, but the trailing 12-month rate remains about 1.1% and shelter inflation remains about 3.4%. Going forward, I think inflation may become a less important...