DTYS News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP REDEEM 13/08/2020 USD 50 - Ser A 06740L451 From 05/28/19

As many long-term followers of my economic research are well aware, I have been a bull on Treasury bonds since 2017, citing slower economic growth and weaker inflation. Interest Rates Will Always Follow Nominal GDP Growth Trends: Source: BEA, FRED, BLS, EPB Macro Research I started...

The U.S. economy now appears to be heading into Quad 4 market scare. In our model, Quad 4 is an environment of U.S growth slowing, inflation slowing . That spells trouble ahead for the market. And so the question becomes, how will the Federal Reserve react? And how fast? In this ...

In late 2018, the US stock market tanked, in effect holding a gun to its own head and threatening to pull the trigger unless the Fed stopped raising interest rates. The Fed, painfully aware that an equities bull market is an existential threat in today's hyper-leveraged world, quickly caved, p...

With a more relaxed attitude towards the sustainability of public finances which has increasing support from some corners of economics, how worried should investors be that public finances become unsustainable and ratchet up interest rates? The past decade has gone through bizarre swings in ...

Bond yields have started to break down, and if today's chart is anything to go by, it's entirely possible we see a further push lower in yields. The May round of flash PMIs brought mostly disappointment, with all the majors undershooting expectations, and falling on the month. Europe fell a ...

Barring a dramatic turn, May will be the worst month of 2019 for many major global benchmarks. Indeed, it will likely be the first down month of the year for stocks. The proximate cause is obvious: The trade war between the world's two largest economies is back on. The re-escalation of trade...

What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. The market has been weak lately. Should we be worried? A look at the data might help. Chart of the Week - The Treasury Yield Curve The Treasury yield curve has inverted again. This indicator has a nearly perfect record of ...

There are trillions of dollars of bonds in the world with negative yields - a fact which future historians will find baffling. Until now those negative yields have been limited to the safest types of bonds issued by governments and major corporations. But this week a new category of negative...

After years of increasingly close cooperation and collaboration, the relationship has turned strained. Both sides are digging in their heels. Credibility is on the line. If one side doesn't back down, things could really turn problematic. The Fed is asserting that it's not about to lower the t...

Market Review & Update Over the last several weeks, we have been discussing the potential for a market correction simply due to divergences in the technical indicators which suggested near-term market risk outweighed the reward. As is generally the case, bonds have been warning the bulli...