FATT News and Press, Fat Tail Risk ETF From 06/28/21

The potential for higher U.S. taxes, coupled with regulatory risks and shifting growth momentum, tempers our near-term enthusiasm for U.S. equities. Euro area business activity surged in June as the region catches up on the restart that has been led by the U.S. and UK. Investors w...

On a price-only basis, the S&P 500 Index is up over 91% since the March 23, 2020 low. Nearly halfway through 2021 and the S&P 500 Index is up a strong 14%. Additionally, when evaluating investor sentiment and equity fund flows, it does not appear investors are all-in on stocks...

The American economy is roaring ahead. There are 3 rivers of money pouring into it. It is worth noting now just where all of this new stimulus money will be spent. My advice is just to hop on and enjoy the ride. Sure, it will end someday, but not today and not for the foreseeable futu...

The BoE has dealt a temporary setback to hawkish bets, but only inflation will show when it eventually pulls the trigger. In any case, we expect this cycle to be shallow. Supply pressure will be felt by EUR rates in the coming days, but it should prove temporary. Next week's US jo...

PIMCO’s baseline outlook for the cyclical horizon has the global economy continuing its uneven recovery before shifting to a more moderate pace of above-trend growth in 2022. With the pandemic receding across much of the world, policy support has also likely peaked and will tur...

Global capital is all in with record leverage on growth and inflation bets. But is the consensus confident, or have they just stopped thinking? While monetary and fiscal funds have drowned the financial system, transmission through the real economy has failed because the cash flows ar...

The average credit spread is the most reliable indicator of economic confidence. Credit spreads being narrow or in a narrowing trend is a characteristic of an economic boom caused by creating lots of money out of nothing. During an economic boom it isn’t a good idea to trad...

Two key historic characteristics of the stock market: It works to confuse and confound the maximum number of people most of the time, while providing excellent long-term returns. So-called “hawkish” commentary by the Fed is credited with sending stocks into a tailspin, w...

The real drama was not on the day of the FOMC statement and Powell’s press conference, but when St. Louis Fed President James Bullard was on CNBC’s Squawk Box last Friday. That’s what caused the most severe repercussions in stocks, bonds, and commodities. Retail i...

Last Tuesday, while the Federal Open Market Committee was meeting in Washington, DC, the Labor Department reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.8% in May, which is significantly higher than the economists’ consensus estimate of a 0.5% increase. Food prices rose 2....