FATT News and Press, Fat Tail Risk ETF From 07/14/21

US inflation is solidly rounding at 5%. Bond yields are nowhere near that, and some $800 billion is getting shipped back to the Fed on a daily basis (overnight). "Forget the taper, just stop the buying already" - that's what the bond market would say, if it could talk. Chair Jay P...

The wild trading in Treasury bonds spooked investors last week as the 10-year Treasury yield hit 1.25% in the early hours last Thursday morning. Perhaps concern is over the Delta variant of Covid that is more contagious and is rapidly spreading across the world - and in unvaccinated p...

The best news last week was the continuing decline in global bond yields, including the 10-year Treasury rate falling below 1.4% last Tuesday. If and when the Fed decides to raise key short-term interest rates, I don’t think they will be able to raise rates by much, since the f...

It should have always been clear to everyone that this restart from a global economic lockdown was never going to a V-shaped recovery! That belief was delusional. The current problems are not going to vanish when the government ends extended unemployment benefits. They are part of the...

On average, stocks in “value” funds have materially lower price/earnings ratios than “growth” funds, the justification for the latter’s higher P/E being that they produce higher earnings. They also appear to be more predictable. Most of the US and mu...

Ten-year government bond yields mostly fell in June, with those for Australia dropping by more than 16 basis points to 1.48%. The second biggest move came from the U.S. 10-year Treasury mid-yield, which ended June nearly 15 basis points lower at 1.44%, its lowest level since early Mar...

This market has been like a roller coaster since Memorial Day. The sector rotation has been the biggest churn. The biggest concern at the moment for longer-term investors, and in particular retirees, is the possibility of higher inflation on the horizon. The housing market, the jo...

Having brushed off hyper-inflation rants in prior years, I started giving inflation a lot of coverage in the last year because I believed inflation was likely to become the driver in our economic malaise in the months ahead. High inflation is a taskmaster that will not be ignored, not...

Treasuries are expensive, but near-term indicators such as technicals, sentiment, and seasonality suggest there’s further to go. We could possibly say the same about equities and property as valuations reach unnervingly familiar levels amid the wash of global liquidity. Com...

Current fixed income yields are 4% or more below average realized returns over the last 40 years. The typical 60/40 equity/fixed income portfolio will likely experience reduced return and increased risk. Portfolio optimization suggests the standard aggregate bond fund is no longer...