FATT News and Press, Fat Tail Risk ETF From 08/08/21

In the beginning of August, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield had dropped to 1.18%, down significantly from a post-pandemic peak of 1.75% in March. A confluence of technical and fundamental factors contributed to the drop in yields, too. Investors observing the trends toward “...

If you are looking for a snapshot as to why there is so much to this “growth scare” and rising deflationary potential (record stocks, though), outside recent labor market data you’d be hard-pressed to do better than US trade statistics. We can see already the disc...

The past week has been a story of stagflation infecting the US economy while the stock market grimaces as the Fed expresses the need to start a gradual pullout from economic stimulus much sooner or face a rapid pullout a little later. Rapid inflation pounds away at the producer side i...

The relentless drop in bond yields raises the question of how low can they go. For 10Y Treasuries, we think 1%. For German bonds, we’re probably closer to the bottom. The service sector is more liable to be impacted by Covid-19 cases. Look out for sentiment surveys today. ...

GMI’s 10-year Sharpe ratio (SR) edged up for a fifth straight month to 0.86, the highest since January 2020, based on a rolling ten-year window via monthly data. Profiling GMI through a drawdown lens also reflects an extended stretch of low risk. GMI is useful as a baseline...

Most of the major asset classes continued to rise in July, led by US real estate investment trusts (REITs). US equities continued trending higher. The bull run also persisted for the Global Market Index (GMI) in July. For further details see: Major Asset Classes: July 20...

Just because prices are going up doesn’t mean that inflation is. Inflation, after all, is the rate at which prices are advancing, not the fact that prices are rising in themselves. It makes no sense to claim that transitory includes all versions of the world in which inflation ...

Saying inflation expectations are "well anchored" makes it sound like they can't easily change. The reality is people expect inflation about like the current inflation. Inflation can get into positive feedback loops that are very hard, or impossible, to control. The central banker...

Stocks are expensive, and people aren’t buying because they want to but rather because they feel like they have to. When people say they are panicking into “the market”, what they really mean is they are panicking out of bank deposits or other safe assets. This pa...

Strategas Policy expert Dan Clifton takes us through the packed calendar for 2H21 in Washington. Dan hits on outlook and ramifications for infrastructure spend, tax hikes, inflation, debt ceiling, and more. More Americans are now worried about inflation than unemployment - a sea c...