FATT News and Press, Fat Tail Risk ETF From 08/31/21

The US front end maintains a magnetic hold, pulling short rates down. A non-committal Fed puts the focus squarely on Friday’s jobs report. September tapering may yet happen, but US Treasuries were allowed a pause in their sell-off. We expect supply to be a more potent drive...

Equities wobbled a bit midway through August, but they have since regained their mojo, all but confirming that the bull market in equities remains strong and unchallenged. A reduction in the pace of QE is coming, in both the US and Europe. Indeed, the pace of asset purchases already h...

If the unemployment rate is too high for the Fed’s mandate, ending QE might be more effective at solving that problem than continuing it, but I doubt stocks would like it - and that seems to matter to the Fed today. The economy is a multi-faceted, global beast which is controll...

There is mounting evidence that the current bump in inflation is just the beginning of a longer-term trend toward higher prices. Higher labor costs, insourcing to secure our supply chain and exogenous pressures on raw materials will be the main culprits. The media will have a fiel...

Strategas Investment Strategist Ryan Grabinski dives deep into recent updates to the Baird Market Gauge ("Sentiment" moved to Favorable from Unfavorable) and hints at a few areas to watch over the coming months. The S&P is trading at about 22x forward earnings, which is elevated. ...

In the absence of the 42-day Cash Management Bill, all that demand for it has to go somewhere. Yellen’s Department will try to supplement next Tuesday by reopening the August 10 issue of the 42-day, selling $45 billion of what will be essentially a 21-day CMB. It isn’...

A softening of sentiment indicators comes as rates already sit close to the bottom of their recent range. Positioning might push them lower still, but EUR rates, in particular, are already consistent with more central bank support next year. The belly of the US curve trades cheap,...

Factors driving inflation higher in the last few months eased in July. Orlando: It takes a long time for the supply, demand mismatch to even out. Orlando: Economic recovery the most important factor for overall inflation. For further details see: Has The U.S. Inflation W...

The 10-year Treasury yield declined a bit during the Afghanistan crisis, so all eyes are now on the Fed to see how new realities will impact monetary policy. The Fed released its latest FOMC minutes, which revealed a disagreement within the FOMC about when QE tapering will begin. On T...

Weak PMIs mean expectations of strong taper warnings at Jackson Hole are being pared back. This could be a mistake, but pessimism means even a hawkish Fed would be greeted with a modest market reaction. In the meantime, supply skews rates moderately higher this week. For fur...