FLGV News and Press, Franklin Liberty U.S. Treasury Bond From 08/11/22

Latest CPI might help sentiment, but inflation is still a problem. Why shelter inflation is creating a more complicated fight for the Fed. Softer CPI could mean the Fed avoids another jumbo rate hike, but rates are still going up. U.S. inflation data for July...

The debate whether the United States is in a recession or not highlights one of the problems with the ways that economists treat yield curve slopes: as a recession prediction indicator that apparently pops out of somewhere. The duration of a 10-year Treasury is longer than that of a 2...

It appears the U.S. economy may be falling into recession - the business cycle has not been eliminated. Valuations outside the U.S. continue to look relatively attractive versus the U.S., especially in Japan. Credit spreads rallied over the past month or so and are once again in l...

Compounding interpretation of the data now is the issue of the pandemic and the consequences of an ill-advised global economic shutdown. Some economists contend two quarters of negative GDP alone is not a sufficient indication of a recession. Certainly, some market sectors and ind...

Two economic reports from last week, attempting to measure essentially the same thing, reported results that were so different they could be about two different countries. The rising rate, rising dollar environment is intact. The 10 year Treasury rate is in a short-term downtrend but ...

Muni debt is mostly owned by tax-paying Americans, and their preferences determine the market prices of the debt. Trillions in derivatives are tied to Treasury debt structures and are part of global transactions that ignore the yield curve outlook and trade against the Treasury yield ...

Last week saw some dramatic moves with TTF futures for European delivery of EU natural gas trading at a weekly high of EUR 228 per megawatt-hour before settling in about 15% off that high. Natural gas is not as fungible as oil. It is true that there is an LNG market, but unfortunately...

Central banks in major economies expected as recently as a few months ago that they could tighten monetary policy very gradually. Central bank actions and communications about the likely path of policy have led to a significant rise in real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates on gover...

The S&P 500 rallied 4.3% (down 13.3% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 3.0% (down 9.6%). The Banks gained 2.1% (down 18.0%), and the Broker/Dealers recovered 4.8% (down 11.0%). The Transports advanced 5.8% (down 11.3%). Investment-grade bond funds posted outflows of $2.442 billion, whi...

Inflation is still high, but it is no longer accelerating rapidly, and evidence of increasingly fragile economic activity is piling up. The headline surveys have weakened materially, especially in Europe, and the US economy entered a technical recession in the first half of the year. ...