FLGV News and Press, Franklin Liberty U.S. Treasury Bond From 11/10/22

Summary Almost half of the option contracts being traded on the S&P 500, to the tune of $300 billion of notional each day, have one-day expiries or less. Across all listed ETFs and indices, an astounding $1 trillion of notional value in put options (bets that an index or ETF w...

Summary Rate hikes and tighter financial conditions drove fixed-income returns lower in 2022. The broad repricing of bonds and the higher starting yields we have now can help insulate investors from further losses. If we look at international bonds, this is probably the first ...

Summary Powell pointed out that the yield curve is not inverted yet if you look at the 3 month/10-year Treasury spread. The 2-10 spread is more inverted than any of the most recent (Greenspan or Bernanke) inversions, but it has not gotten as bad as the Volcker inversions, which we...

Summary The trend for the dollar and the 10-year Treasury yield is still up but, as I said last week, both appear to be hitting a short-term peak. US stocks were down last week but non-US stocks had a great week. The selloff in the dollar Friday goosed non-dollar returns by nearly...

Summary Economists like to talk about forecasting recessions. To be blunt, I think this is an absolute waste of time. While nearly everyone seems to be aware that the yield curve is inverted, it seems that few people understand the significance of this event. Acting on this si...

Summary Recession is likely, but the unique characteristics of the previous pandemic-fueled recession wrung out many excesses. Inflation will come down, but not to the low levels experienced over the past few decades. Capital markets have re-priced assets in ways that create a...

Summary As tax-loss harvesting season begins in earnest, the main headline typically focuses on the selloff in global equity and fixed income markets, many of which are down well over 10% so far this year. However, for US-listed ETFs that hold international equities, returns are d...

Summary Fed's Powell remains hawkish on rates, despite dovish overtures in statement. The Fed reiterates its intension that rates will remain high until inflation is cracked. Why rates are going to be higher for longer, even after inflation comes down. Th...

Summary The closest thing to a guarantee in finance is the truism that recessions always follow Treasury bond yield inversions. The labor force is no longer expanding and may be shrinking. A recession in which the GDP shrinks by 1% for two quarters while employment remains sta...

Summary The global economy has been hit by several headwinds, almost all of them leading back to higher inflation. Europe is likely already in recession, the U.S. will enter recession in Q2 2023, while China struggles to make recovery headway. Markets have faced up to the reality ...