FLGV News and Press, Franklin Liberty U.S. Treasury Bond From 01/07/23

Summary 2022 was a bad year for most kinds of core investment assets, from the least-risky Treasury securities to the most volatile corners of the equity market. We expect there will be a recession in the US at some point in 2023, driven by a combination of cyclical factors. Bond yi...

Summary The Fed’s interest rate and liquidity tools are blunt instruments, particularly in a service-oriented economy. If inflation indeed moderates from here, it is likely that interest rate volatility moderates alongside it. Monetary policy has created the asset-on/asset-of...

Summary Cam Harvey, a professor at Duke University, downplays the risk of recession currently forecast by the negative spread of the 3-month yield less its 10-year counterpart. The yield curve (and its variations) still deserves to be on the short list of analytics for monitoring and fo...

Summary 1 or more years of additional interest-rate duration in ‘23 vs. ‘22, to be grown over time: As central banks slow, or pause, their tightening cycles, in sympathy with slowing economic growth and inflation. 6% to 6.5% of portfolio carry potential (including anticipa...

Summary The S&P 500 is down just over 20% since January 4th and a seasonally unusual -6.4% month to date. Sentiment reports may appear bearish, but equity positioning, especially in household portfolios, remains (as shown below in yellow) near the secular peaks of 1966, 2000 and 202...

Franklin Liberty U.S. Treasury Bond ETF ( NYSEARCA: FLGV ) - $0.0586 . 30-Day SEC Yield of 4.04% as of Nov. 30. Payable Dec 22; for shareholders of record Dec 19; ex-div Dec 16. For further details see: Franklin Liberty U.S. Treasury Bond ETF declares monthly distrib...

Summary As the stock market went up the first two days of the week, more shares transacted at rising prices. A leading retail-oriented broker indicated their clients have been buying mostly corporate/municipal bonds and commodities, while selling declining US government bonds. The t...

Summary The inversion of 80% of the 10 economically important yield curves suggests a recession is likely. While many hope the Federal Reserve will “pivot,” such may not be as immediately “bullish” as many expect. As yields plummet, bond prices rise as in...

Summary Instead of rate expectations moving higher, the near-term rate expectations hardly changed, while the 2024 federal funds implied rate expectations dropped. The yield curve became much more inverted, with short-term rates exceeding long-term yields by a larger margin. Increas...

Summary Recession is foretold, in our view, as central banks crush demand to bring down inflation. We think markets are wrong to expect them to later come to the rescue. U.S. stocks fell and the Treasury yield curve inverted its most since the early 1980s. We see recent moves as reflect...