FLGV News and Press, Franklin Liberty U.S. Treasury Bond From 03/13/23

2023-03-13 15:35:00 ET Summary One of the themes I’ve been discussing lately is how inflation risk has been evolving into credit risk. The banking bust we’re seeing now was sown during COVID. The COVID boom was the inevitable blow off top of the prior 10-year bull ma...

2023-03-09 16:53:00 ET Summary As US short-term rates have moved above 5 percent, longer-term Treasury bonds have rallied, causing their yields to fall. Even with lagging unemployment rates still near historic lows, households are behind on their debt payments by the most since 20...

2023-03-09 09:27:00 ET Summary The natural slope of the yield curve is positive, meaning short-term interest rates are lower than long-term interest rates. There are periods where the curve inverts and, most importantly, a recession has followed each time. The yield on the 2-y...

2023-03-09 05:00:00 ET Summary Money supply growth fell again in January. M2 growth rates have followed a similar course to TMS growth rates, although TMS has fallen faster than M2. Fed has stopped adding to its portfolio through quantitative easing and allowed a small amount ...

2023-03-06 05:45:00 ET Summary Central banks around the world have been adding liquidity. This includes China, Japan, Europe, and the US. The Treasury department has been spending down their account by using emergency measures to not breach the debt ceiling. This has had the e...

Summary In all previous Fed tightening episodes since 1989, the yield curve has never been as inverted as it is today. History strongly suggests that at this juncture in the monetary policy and economic cycles, yield curves are nearing a point of normalization. Yield curve normaliza...

Summary The credit cycle lies at the heart of our financial system. Corporations and households rely on the availability of credit to facilitate economic growth and ensure financial stability. Unfortunately, the leading indicators suggest the cyclical outlook of the credit cycle is unfa...

Summary The degree of inversion has now either set a record or is at its most negative differential in over 40 years. Is a recession inevitable given the inverted nature of the UST yield curve? Looking at economists’ estimates for Q1 real GDP, the recession may have to wait. ...

Summary The hawkish repricing on the US curve has resulted in a further inversion, as swaps still price 2024 rate cuts. The mood is understandably nervous, but some indicators suggest optimism. There is undeniably some upside to rates across maturities today on an upside inflation s...

Summary The U.S. is now in the midst of producing record amounts of natural gas, which will help prices firm up. The milder winter kept prices low, but as the U.S. and Europe are hit by more Arctic air fronts in late winter, natural gas prices could start rising. As seasonal demand rise...