FLGV News and Press, Franklin Liberty U.S. Treasury Bond From 08/01/23

2023-08-01 00:12:00 ET Summary U.S. economy has changed over decades and become much less sensitive to interest rates. There was no such thing as financial futures or interest rate swaps to allow for the efficient hedging of interest rate risk. Financial futures, swaps, and op...

2023-07-31 19:40:00 ET Summary The economy continues to perform better than expected despite the Fed raising interest rates steadily – and fairly rapidly – over the last year. The recession calls first started last year in April when the 10-year/2-year Treasury curve...

2023-07-27 14:35:00 ET Summary In a unanimous decision, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised rates by 25 basis points. Fed Chair Jay Powell was emphatic that monetary policy is now restrictive and that the Fed is nearing the end of tightening. We feel that equity markets have a...

2023-07-25 05:30:00 ET Summary The predictive power of the yield curve is a widely accepted causal narrative, but history shows that the causal correlation between long and short rates is actually quite weak. While long and short rates tend to move in the same direction, they do s...

2023-07-24 23:27:00 ET Summary After dropping over 2% last week, the US Dollar rebounded some to take it back above its Bollinger band. As for the 10-year Treasury yield, its uptrend remains on track, both in the short and intermediate term, this following last week’s close...

2023-07-24 05:37:00 ET Summary Markets assume that a 25 bps rate increase at the FOMC’s meeting next Wednesday will wrap up the Fed’s tightening cycle. The S&P 500 increased 0.7% (up 18.1% y-t-d), and the Dow jumped 2.1% (up 6.3%). Federal Reserve Credit decl...

2023-07-19 04:54:00 ET Summary The yield curve is the difference between the current 10-year T-Note yield and the 2-Year T-Note yield. The Fed Funds Rate is the rate the Fed sets on overnight money to establish the demand for money necessary to get inflation to its 2% target. ...

2023-07-18 21:43:00 ET Summary The market discount sees a Mexican central bank rate cut from November. We agree, and we in fact can see rates being cut faster than the market discounts thereafter. This can be gleaned from the appreciation in the peso and falls in market rates....

2023-07-17 07:35:00 ET Summary Is the Fed responsible for the drop in the inflation rate? If not, what does that imply about future policy and inflation? The 10-year/3-month Treasury spread has been inverted since last year, and that has been a reliable predictor of recession in t...

2023-07-14 21:43:00 ET Summary Can bonds provide the returns in the second half that were expected in the first? The case for staying the course for fixed income. Why that fixed income strategy may be facing a timing problem. Originally published on July 6,...