FLGV News and Press, Franklin Liberty U.S. Treasury Bond From 10/11/20

At least for now, for the markets it's weirder the better. With Biden's lead appearing increasingly insurmountable (with less than four weeks to go), we can assume there was this week significant buying associated with the partial reversal of market hedges. Chairman Powell made hi...

History has taught us to pay attention to the last three months prior to election day as a potential sign of things to come. Whenever the S&P 500 has been higher in the three months leading up to election day, the incumbent candidate won in 20 out of 23 elections. We don't yet...

It doesn't take much to set reflation expectations on fire these days. With US interest rates near zero (or negative in some parts of the world), a mild uptick in yields inspires a new round of forecasts that a sustained run of higher inflation has finally started. The immediate c...

Some earnings and revenue growth data was going to be added on the Financial sector, but given the drop in the 10-year Treasury this morning, with the 10-year Treasury yield now at 74 bps, a post dedicated to worries about rising interest rates made more sense. A steepening yield curv...

There seem to be too many different types of risks developing around the Presidential election. Personally, I still think Financials in general and bank stocks in particular are more "value" than "value trap" but more patience will be required. It's another dry week for S&P 50...

U.S. election is just one of the three forces driving financial markets. Debunking the notion that a GOP administration is better for financial markets than a Democratic government. What a Trump or Biden win could mean for equities, fixed income and real assets. For further ...

As news hit that President Trump and the First Lady contracted COVID-19, so did the market at the open with Dow down roughly 450 points. With the election already a concern, no fiscal stimulus on the way, and rising weakness in the economic data, we added a short-market hedge to portf...

President Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis has raised worldwide concern. While everyone shares concern about his personal health (and that of the First Lady), it is natural (and reasonable) to consider one's own investments. This analysis requires conclusions about the effect on the ele...

The first stage of the US economic recovery proved as strong as we expected, and even following the second wave of contagion in July, the recovery showed an encouraging degree of resilience. We expect third-quarter US gross domestic product to show a strong quarter-on-quarter rebound,...

The dramatic move in commodities could be due to portfolio rebalancing at the end of the month, or it could be signaling that the recovery is running out of steam. Countries are doing QE to manipulate their currencies and get inflation, but their attempts to reflate their economies ar...