FLGV News and Press, Franklin Liberty U.S. Treasury Bond From 12/10/20

Today’s market selloff was an anomaly amid the bullish attitudes that have prevailed despite trouble in the real economy. The yield curve continued to steepen even on a day that saw equities selling off, which may suggest a breakdown in that correlation. People looking thro...

With the world in the early post-recession recovery phase of the business cycle, our medium-term outlook for economies and corporate earnings is positive. We believe that 2021 will feature an extended period of low-inflation, low-interest rate growth that favors equities over bonds. T...

The coronavirus is likely to accelerate throughout the holidays, with activity restrictions likely to tamp down growth - even without another round of broad national lockdowns. At the very least, slow growth and low inflation are likely for the next several months. The Fed will keep m...

There is no longer any correlation between bank reserves and the economy-wide money supply. In the US, the government-Fed combination can increase the money supply to almost any extent independently of the private banks. That is, monetary inflation does not rely on the expansion of cr...

The problem is that the stimulus does not create organic, sustainable economic activity. Stimulus only pulls forward future activity into the present, leaving a future void to fill. Currently, the market is extremely "one-sided" as investors chase markets. It is at these points in...

November non-farm payrolls gained 245,000, only about half the mean forecast - and down from October's 610,000. It was the weakest job growth since April's employment debacle. U.S. equities rallied on the disappointing news. Bad news has never been more positively received by the stoc...

Who would have thought that we would be talking about the potential for an overheating economy at this juncture? Investors have been caught on the wrong foot, holding record levels of cash and bonds while being underweight inequities. We expect record operating margins, profits, and c...

The Treasury market's inflation forecast broke above its pre-pandemic high this week, fueling speculation that a new era of firmer pricing pressure is dawning. There's a case for reviving the pre-pandemic outlook for roughly 2% inflation, but expecting a substantially hotter run still...

The government is throwing money at the pandemic. The Fed is helping wholeheartedly. And inflation and yields are confounding the experts. For further details see: Yields And Inflation - Soaring? Not So Fast

To address the breadth of possibilities that lie ahead in this environment, our global outlook for 2021 includes a base case, an upside scenario, and a downside scenario. In our base-case scenario, we expect equities to outperform fixed income as growth moves above trend, the global e...