FLGV News and Press, Franklin Liberty U.S. Treasury Bond From 03/15/21

Doctor Doom, Henry Kaufman, former chief economist at Salomon Brothers, is back and "... sees danger in the markets and economy." The secular bear market that took hold of the index in 1966 bottomed in the fall of 1974, breaking below 600 on the industrials for a brief period. That be...

While a steepening yield curve sows the seeds of its own destruction via an ever more attractive roll and carry, especially with forward guidance on the front end, there is always a risk that markets end up questing the commitment to low policy rates. When Mr. Powell says that the Fed...

Jerome Powell has suggested that the Federal Reserve's position will remain resolutely supportive for growth. He will have a tough task convincing markets that inflation risks can be overlooked and rate hikes remain years away. The June FOMC is when the fireworks happen. For...

U.S. and global equities markets are historic speculative bubbles, fueled by runaway monetary inflation and acute monetary disorder. It's my opinion that markets in U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, corporate credit and derivatives have evolved into full-fledged manias. The Fed's Z.1 "fl...

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released Wednesday puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 1.68%. It is below the 3.76% average since the end of the Second World War and below its 10-year moving average, now at 1.73%. Our long-term inflation charts reach bac...

One of the interesting things during the period when Treasury yields were rising was that all of the risk assets were compressing against Treasuries. There is virtually no spread in any of the credit indexes that pays the buyer for the credit risk. The spreads are just off historic lo...

10-year U.S. Treasury yield. Where is it headed? Will high-flying tech and momentum stocks fly high again? Is this a short-lived sector rotation from tech into value? For further details see: The Great Tech Rotation. Will High-Flying Tech Fly High Again?

Today the Fed released its estimates of household net worth as of the end of December 2020. Net worth has reached a new record high in nominal, real, and per capita terms. The private sector of the US economy currently has a net worth (total assets minus liabilities) of more than $130...

The stakes are high as we head to 31st March. By then, the positive leeway the Fed gave to US banks on how to treat Treasuries and reserves comes to an end, unless the Fed decides to extend it. We think they will, but not with conviction. If they don't, there are $600 billion of T...

Without a doubt, the biggest story in bond-land, if not the financial markets in general, thus far in 2021 has been the spike in the U.S. Treasury 10-year yield. At this point, the federal government's financing needs reflect the baseline trillion-dollar deficit coming into this fisca...