FLGV News and Press, Franklin Liberty U.S. Treasury Bond From 04/13/21

Last Friday’s huge PPI number looked like it could cause a dramatic response in both bonds and stocks, as it came in at +4.2% (year over year), the largest gain since 2012. Bonds did not sell off violently, probably since some uptick was expected on the economic reopening, and ...

From March 15, 2020 to year end, the U.S. Dollar Index was down over 12%. It rose in the first quarter of 2021, but the Index is down 1.2% so far in April after the Fed reiterated that it won't raise rates despite forecasts that the U.S. economy will likely recover faster than its peers. ...

All of the recent positive economic news caused the IMF to raise its 2021 U.S. GDP forecast by a giant step to 6.4% (from 5.1% previously estimated). That would represent the strongest annual economic growth rate since 1984. The one warning flag is inflation. Producer Price Index rose...

A jump in US CPI today is well-flagged, but it should be a wake-up call to what we think will be stickier inflation in the coming months, if not years. This would render the Fed's position increasingly stretched and the policy-sensitive 5Y sector has more room to cheapen. EUR rate...

We know that rising bond yields can be painful in the short term as prices fall. But in the long run, rising rates are good for bond investors. To see what the actual impact of rising rates might be on a bond portfolio, we modeled a simple portfolio of Treasury bonds and "shocked" it ...

March was a mixed month for global government bond yields, with those for the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rising by 29 basis points to 1.75%. In Canada, the 10-year mid-yield climbed nearly 21 basis points to end the month at 1.56%, its sixth consecutive increase. Also increasing f...

We are recovering from a sharp if brief recession, and with the dual fire hoses of fiscal and monetary stimulus, entering a boom such as we have probably not seen in over 50 years. Unsurprisingly, supplies of commodities and goods that had been cut back during the recession are going ...

The PPI report last week didn't make a ripple in the markets, but the commentariat was all aTwitter about inflation and economic overheating and whether Powell might raise in rates in 2 years or 3. The market was not impressed. The 10-year Treasury yield moved all of about 1 basis poi...

The spectacular collapse of Archegos marks a significant inflection point, ushering in a tightening of lending conditions at the "margin" for increasingly vulnerable bubbles. In contrast to the previous bubble period, government "money" has been a principal bubble fuel. Policymakers h...

For decades, we have relied upon bonds as a steady source of income, cash flows, and capital preservation. This is no longer true and has not been true for some time now. In my estimation, there is just no worth in the bond markets any longer, whether you consider “Absolute Val...