FLGV News and Press, Franklin Liberty U.S. Treasury Bond From 05/06/21

Unprecedented stimulus has lifted US economic activity to within touching distance of its pre-pandemic levels. President Biden isn't finished with more money on its way to complement a private sector reopening spending splurge. The result is likely to be an economy that is larger ...

There's a negative real rates market today, not in the inverted eurozone rates space but in the US, where a macro boom brewing. Why are real rates so negative? Partly it is well-founded future fears. But the here and now should dominate far more. We are monitoring the various driv...

Today's post rolls out the inaugural Risk Review column for the major asset classes, a monthly update that's the companion piece to the monthly performance report and risk-premia estimates. Risk analysis is a broad and deep subject and so this monthly update will be no one's idea of a...

Financial markets are not immune to reopening angst. Fear of overheating and of excessive leverage are factors behind the recent souring in risk aversion. This does not change the macro story, in our view, and PMIs/ISMs today should be a reminder of that. For further details...

Earnings have been good, but the reaction has not been what I would call benign. I think we are headed into another interest rate-driven rotation in the stock market, similar to what we saw in March. The key to whether it works out the same way - a fast shakeout and ultimately a n...

The dominant reaction to the yesterday's US ISM data came from real yields. What's not to like about a US ISM reading in excess of 60? Part of the answer is the expected number was even higher (65). Another part reflects demand for fixed income. But yet another represents uncertainty,...

We see near-term volatility in inflation as the economic restart progresses, and believe markets underappreciate potential for medium-term price pressures. U.S. stocks hit record highs supported by strong corporate earnings. The Federal Reserve reiterated its intent to "stay behind th...

April delivered across-the-board gains in the major asset classes as risk-assets around the world rebounded from widespread losses in March. The lead performer in April: broadly defined commodities, which surged 8.3% via the Bloomberg Commodity Index. The worst performer last mont...

Last week, we talked about inflation. This week, we are looking at shortages. The market looks tired and many are making summer plans. Sell in May and go away? The rollover of options this week presents a real opportunity for volatility to return. The options market had the market...

With US GDP already back to where it started pre-Covid, and the Fed still on full easing mode, inflation risks remain elevated. Expectations are braced for this, but the absolute level of rates is not offering much protection. Growing confidence in the eurozone recovery gels with ...