FLGV News and Press, Franklin Liberty U.S. Treasury Bond From 06/25/21

The BoE has dealt a temporary setback to hawkish bets, but only inflation will show when it eventually pulls the trigger. In any case, we expect this cycle to be shallow. Supply pressure will be felt by EUR rates in the coming days, but it should prove temporary. Next week's US jo...

PIMCO’s baseline outlook for the cyclical horizon has the global economy continuing its uneven recovery before shifting to a more moderate pace of above-trend growth in 2022. With the pandemic receding across much of the world, policy support has also likely peaked and will tur...

Global capital is all in with record leverage on growth and inflation bets. But is the consensus confident, or have they just stopped thinking? While monetary and fiscal funds have drowned the financial system, transmission through the real economy has failed because the cash flows ar...

The average credit spread is the most reliable indicator of economic confidence. Credit spreads being narrow or in a narrowing trend is a characteristic of an economic boom caused by creating lots of money out of nothing. During an economic boom it isn’t a good idea to trad...

Two key historic characteristics of the stock market: It works to confuse and confound the maximum number of people most of the time, while providing excellent long-term returns. So-called “hawkish” commentary by the Fed is credited with sending stocks into a tailspin, w...

The real drama was not on the day of the FOMC statement and Powell’s press conference, but when St. Louis Fed President James Bullard was on CNBC’s Squawk Box last Friday. That’s what caused the most severe repercussions in stocks, bonds, and commodities. Retail i...

Last Tuesday, while the Federal Open Market Committee was meeting in Washington, DC, the Labor Department reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.8% in May, which is significantly higher than the economists’ consensus estimate of a 0.5% increase. Food prices rose 2....

The longer a period of elevated inflation - or at least fear of elevated inflation - persists, the higher the risk that a perceived transitory phenomenon could become permanent. We still believe this period will be transitory, but the transition period looks longer and wobblier than p...

Many will disagree that the Fed has already hiked rates, but it has. Just by 5bp, and only techncial, but there is still an impact. Pricing the front end with the excess of liquidity is tough, but it still looks too low (in yield). The long end looks a bit lost now, having flatten...

Fed officials embraced higher 2021 inflation as contributing to their medium-term policy objective, opening the door to a 2023 lift-off. We see this shift as consistent with the Fed’s new framework, implying a much more muted response to inflation and supporting risk assets. ...