FLGV News and Press, Franklin Liberty U.S. Treasury Bond From 08/16/21

We believe ignoring the effects of climate change on portfolios is not an option, and the window for investors to position portfolios may be shrinking. The U.S. Senate passed a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill that now awaits a House vote. Congress will take up the $3.5 trillion spen...

A potential reduction in the Fed’s purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities could open up opportunities for investors. The agency mortgage market is currently trading roughly 15 basis points rich relative to its three-year average. Agency pass-throughs are a foundatio...

This week, the market did register new highs, but only by a small fraction. What is important to note is that these incremental gains are burning through buying power, which leaves the markets increasingly vulnerable to a correction, given the proper catalyst. However, for now, with v...

Inflation is a bit stickier than expected. And as it is not leading to higher long-term interest rates, it’s not yet having the traditional effect on earnings multiples and bond prices. Despite equity markets near all-time highs, investor anxiety is up. Strategas Chief Inve...

The BLS reports producer prices that are still rising at substantial rates. The PPI representing the final demand for finished goods was up 9.35% YoY in July, slightly faster than the 9.19% posted in June. The latest a new thirteen-year high just about equal to August 2008. It isn...

The Fed is promising to be too easy for too long, and that means the current inflation surge is unlikely to prove temporary. That, in turn, means that interest rates are very likely to rise above expectations. Fiscal policy is dangerously "stimulative." No need for Congress to do anyt...

The annual rate of inflation has seemingly peaked, but the details show a broadening out of price pressures. This indicates inflation is likely to be more persistent and pervasive than predicted by the Federal Reserve. With consumer inflation expectations also on the rise, the cas...

According to the BLS and its latest CPI estimates for the month of July 2021, consumer prices are still well higher than they had been during July 2020, but the rate of change seems to have changed (second derivative). The latest estimate decelerated, potentially suggesting the arriva...

We may well have seen the trough in both USD and EUR rates this summer, but we expect USD rates will rise much faster from here. With Fed tapering coming into view, the divergence with ECB QE policy will become more obvious. There is divergence on the US front end too, as bills re...

Hawkish soundbites and positive economic news dominate for the US, despite global growth concerns. Officials talking about tapering within a few months should help focus minds at the long end of the curve, despite a supportive technical backdrop for bonds. A glut of cash remains i...