FSTA News and Press, Fidelity MSCI COnsumer Staples Index From 10/25/22

Summary We forecast Halloween candy prices to be up 14% over last year. Purchases of candy (i.e. volumes) have been trending lower since last October, partly in response to rapidly rising prices. Total spending on Halloween candy, at $3.2 billion, is expected to be only 1% abo...

Summary PPI and CPI numbers came out last week, and both were higher than expected. Fed officials are concerned about the persistence of high inflation, and a 0.75% key interest rate hike at the November FOMC meeting is virtually certain. Worldwide demand for crude oil naturally r...

Summary E-commerce valuations ebbed as cooped-up consumers craved real-world experiences - but a closer look at the data suggests online shopping is unlikely to retreat. Since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, e-commerce’s share of total retail sales has fallen to 14.5% ...

Summary Balancing inventory supply and demand is simple in theory, but difficult to execute. Retailers misestimated categories of demand and logistics issues, leading to more late arrivals. The winners will be consumers who take advantage of heavy promotional activity. ...

Summary We expect macro headwinds will continue to pressure U.S. corporate earnings in the coming months. We expect earnings expectations to decline as multinational firms realize foreign exchange headwinds that accelerated over the past year. Investors can avoid undue interna...

Summary A number of advisors have reported higher than normal inventories as an additional sign of pending recession. The data does not support this perception. Business Inventory/Sales…and Retail Sales vs. Trucking… reveal a considerable deficit exists in business I...

Summary The consensus expectation on Tuesday for August CPI was for a 0.1% decline, but the positive +0.1% monthly gain in the CPI shocked Wall Street. This inflation news spooked Treasury bond yields, pushing 10-year yields up from 3.36% on Monday to 3.42% on Tuesday. Now tha...

Summary From a year ago, retail sales are up 9.2 percent and remain well above the pre-pandemic trend. Real core retail sales posted a 0.3 percent decline in August after declining less than 0.1 percent in July. Overall, nominal total and core retail sales remain well above tr...

Summary AIER’s Leading Indicators Index held at a cycle low of 29 in August, matching the lowest level since August 2020. The Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board rose in August, the first increase following three consecutive monthly declines. The final A...

Summary Jackson Hole reset expectations to focus more on inflation. The U.S. dollar should stabilize over the medium-term amid hawkishness from other central banks and slowing economic data. At stake is Europe’s ability to refill their storage tanks ahead of winter. ...