FTDS News and Press, FIRST TRUST EXCH From 07/01/22

We have upgraded inflation forecasts - and downgraded growth - and now expect global GDP to expand at a rate well below potential in 2023. Regardless of whether the economic slowdown meets the technical definition of a recession, the next few quarters aren’t going to feel good....

A broad range of data suggests recession risks in the U.S. are mounting. Stocks currently remain under selling pressure due to a variety of issues causing a repricing of valuations. Investing during a recession can be dangerous, particularly when elevated valuations are present ac...

The U.S. is about to record two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. Consumer sentiment and small business outlook are extremely poor. The retail bullwhip effect is going to put further pressure on GDP growth. Markets are in a very precarious position until the Fe...

I am still forecasting a continuation of the current expansion. Yet I will gladly eat crow to realize a recession during the first half of the year. That will improve the chances for a market recovery in the second half of the year, which is a more important call for me than the e...

While everyone is focused on inflation, it is becoming increasingly clear that we’re on the cusp of deflation in everything but necessities such as food and energy. How do we know deflation is coming? We only have to look at soaring inventory-to-sales data from major retailers ...

Inflation eroded all of the nominal month-over-month gain for American households in May 2022. Political Calculations' initial estimate of median household income in May 2022 is $77,265, an increase of $702 (or 0.92%) from the initial estimate of $76,563 in April 2022. The BEA mad...

Since its all-time high last November, Bitcoin has plunged by about 72%, while stocks have shed 21%. You couldn't find two assets that are more different, yet their prices are moving in apparent lockstep. Does the collapse of cryptocurrencies have something to do with this year's ...

Back in January, I said inflation had peaked. This morning’s Core PCE data seals the deal for me – it looks like inflation peaked in February. Another big theme of mine in recent years was that the Fed was behind the curve both ways. So, defining inflation as an incr...

Regular investments into the market mechanically buys more (less) when prices fall (rise), relieving you of the task of estimating timely moments for investing. History suggests that when the S&P 500 falls 20% from its previous peak, there’s usually more pain to come before...

Spending on services rose in May, but spending on goods fell – all adjusted for inflation. Spending on durable goods continues to be handicapped by the ongoing shortage of new vehicles. “Real” spending on services rose by 0.3% in May from April, and by 4.7% ye...