FTDS News and Press, FIRST TRUST EXCH From 07/05/22

While the Fed forecasts tend to help market participants understand the future course of policy, they should also be looked at with a dose of skepticism. The projections are as much a product of econometric models as they are an attempt for the Fed to guide the markets (and economy) i...

Commodities prices have spiked as demand from the restart clashed with tightening supply. We see the war and net-zero transition keeping prices high. U.S. and euro area inflation data last week showed still-persistent inflation. Stocks and bond yields fell as markets priced more risk ...

On July 1, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta lowered its Q2 GDP projection to -2.1%, officially forecasting a recession. If the Atlanta Fed’s projection of negative growth in Q2 comes to pass, it will couple with the first quarter decline of -1.6% to put the US economy solidl...

What is a "Ponzi"? What just happened? A contrarian view of the first half of 2022. It’s the 1970s all over again, or is it? A view from someone who lived every day of it as an investment professional. Investors continue to stare into the rear-view mirror. "Recency ...

The Euro and emerging markets stocks had the perfectly positive correlation in June (EEM down and FXE down). The end of the liquidity shock will weaken the US Dollar and boost emerging market stocks. Weaker USD needs some evidence of the Fed's dovish turn. The Liquidity ...

We left a stimulated expansion and rising US stock market for a contracting “bear market” and likely economic recession. The stock market performed its traditional function by discounting the future and falling before an economic contraction began. Over the last two week...

Once the COVID distortions are over the economy will return to its previous state of roughly 2% growth and 2% inflation. Real sales of durable goods surged throughout COVID but accelerated rapidly with stimulus payments; sales peaked right as Biden’s American Rescue Act was imp...

Anchored by the deflationary experiences of the last decade, the Fed waited until headline CPI inflation had hit 7.9% before it finally started tightening monetary policy. This delayed response has permitted inflation expectations to rise and wage growth pressures to increase. Monetar...

PE ratios indicate that stock valuations are now more reasonable, although inflation and earnings both present potential downside risks. Revenue growth and profit margins are both above trend and a substantial fall in earnings appears likely. If inflation were to become structural...

Markets ended the week down bad, precipitated by mixed PCE data, slowing consumer spending, and a weaker-than-expected PMI print. Consumer sentiment and confidence worsen as inflation proves to be sticky and billionaire Jim Coulter expects "Phase 2" of his market downturn playbook to ...