FTSD News and Press, Franklin Liberty Short Duration U.S. Government From 01/19/23

Summary Amid speculation that the US could be slipping into a recession, upcoming flash PMI data will be eagerly assessed to gauge the business climate in the opening month of the year. The surveys from S&P Global have been sending especially weak signals for output and demand growt...

Summary Why the US recession outlook isn't as clear as previously thought. The U.S. consumer shows signs of resilience despite fears of a slowdown. U.S. economy continues to send markets conflicting signals. While markets brace for a possible U.S. recession, there ...

Summary The money and bond markets are already knee-deep in Fed policy conjecture only a couple of weeks into the new year. Even though the Fed raised the Fed Funds target range by an eye-opening 350 basis points (bps) since May, financial conditions are now unchanged from where they we...

Summary Why the second half of 2023 may be good for markets. Inflation may be cooling, but the labour market isn't. Why investors are having a mixed reaction to encouraging CPI numbers. U.S. consumer inflation data showed prices softening in December. Greg Bonnell ...

Summary Inflation is moving down. Fed actually has a more preferred measure of core inflation, which is core Personal Consumption Expenditures. The Fed is saying that a shallow recession basically is on the horizon. In our latest "Talking Markets" podcast, we meet with r...

Summary Inflation pressures were worse in the first half of last year at a time when the economy suffered two quarters of negative growth (inflation-adjusted), while inflation declined significantly in the second half, when the economy enjoyed two quarters of roughly 3% growth (inflation-ad...

Summary The latest CPI report for the United States suggests that the inflation spike after 2020 was transitory in the rather weak sense that I understood the term “transitory”. Obviously, the people who argued that inflation would subside in late 2021 - which was a consen...

Summary According to the BLS report, price inflation during the month decelerated slightly, coming in at the lowest year-over-year increase in fifteen months. According to the BLS, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose 6.5 percent year over year during December, before seasonal adju...

Summary Monetary policy changes move through the economy in 12 to 24-month lags. Would-be sellers are also often reluctant to admit that prices are falling. Eventually, a lack of patience, financial resources, time and other constraints ultimately prompt capitulation selling and, fi...

Summary We already know about housing’s woes, but manufacturing, and now service-related gauges, are in contractionary territory. However, the latest jobs report continued to reveal that a rather solid labor market setting still exists. So, what if the U.S. economy manages th...