FTSD News and Press, Franklin Liberty Short Duration U.S. Government From 02/07/23

Summary One of the key assumptions behind commodity markets is that it is economic demand that drives pricing. It has been long-conflated that sentiment drives economic activity and that certain correlated indicators are believed to be economic measures and good predictors of future eco...

Summary Over the past couple of months, we have seen a clear downtrend emerge in the coincident measure of economic growth, suggesting we are on the path to recession. Inflation is also clearly rolling over. However, this is not the case within the labour market nor the services sector,...

Summary The recent path of inflation bears a striking resemblance to that of the 1970s, the last time that the Federal Reserve faced such a significant battle with inflation. Inflation will not necessarily follow the exact path as the 1970s. Inflation expectations are better anchore...

Summary Nominal interest rates plunged from 2.5% to zero during the Covid crisis of March 2020, and nominal interest rates rose sharply during 2022. With the recent rise in nominal interest rates, investors are moving from relatively lower-yielding bank accounts to higher-yielding alter...

Summary The broadest measure of the economy, real GDP, grew at a solid pace in the fourth quarter, rising at an annualized pace of 2.9 percent, following 3.2 percent in the third quarter. With data through December, all of the major measures of inflation showed moderation through year-e...

Summary We are now seeing clear signs of a broad-based decline in inflation. This is primarily being driven by goods and energy, while food inflation is likely to drive the next leg lower in CPI. Services and rent inflation however remain sticky, which are primarily being driven by ...

Summary Are interest rate hikes proving to be successful? What's next for the Fed after scaling back hikes. Where the inflation fight is heading next. After several months of aggressive rate hikes, inflation is finally showing signs of easing. Greg Bonnell speaks w...

Summary While some pessimism has lifted from central bank messaging, we still think the market may be hearing only what it wants to hear. The BoE hiked rates by 50 basis points, but hinted that this might be the end of the cycle. That was dovish, but not entirely unexpected, given the f...

Summary In examining the terms growth and value, I now recognize that the two labels should not be given to stocks, but to periods of time when a company is experiencing growth or value. For those of us emotionally connected with stock market prices, there is a tendency to label a ...

Summary We see central banks stumbling into a more nuanced phase of the inflation fight and nearing a pause on hikes. We like short-term bonds and credit for income. U.S. stocks rose but trimmed gains and Treasury yields jumped after U.S. jobs data showed a tight labor market, reviving ...