GBGR News and Press, Global Beta Momentum-Growth

Summary NGDP is a much better indicator than inflation, but still not perfect. If we assume the key macro problem is business cycles created by nominal shocks interacting with sticky wages, then aggregate wage income may be a better cyclical indicator than NGDP. A mild slowdow...

Summary New Omicron outbreaks in the context of Covid-zero policy, the housing slump, and heat waves have been holding up the pace of the Chinese economy. China’s current growth slowdown is an additional step in the trajectory of gradually declining rates that has accompani...

Summary Equities rebounded in recent weeks as investors considered the prospects of a possible pivot by major central banks, especially after China’s central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates. Similar to Europe, core inflation and services inflation are expected to rise ...

Summary The July gain puts the level of total durable goods orders at $273.5 billion, the third highest on record. Despite the gain, real new orders for capital goods are trending nearly flat over the past year. Durable goods orders have posted a strong recovery from the lockd...

Summary The recent bounce in equity prices has just been a rather pedestrian bear market rally. Bull markets are not engendered by a faltering global economy, very high rates of inflation, and the most hawkish global central bank tightening cycle in history. The $6 trillion of hel...

A more attractive equity valuation environment, combined with the removal of uncertainty, may present opportunity for stock-specific alpha as the focus shifts to company fundamentals. Following three years of gains, U.S. equity markets have experienced a number of challenges thus far ...

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to 0.27 in July, with all four categories of indicators rising. The 3-month average was unchanged at -0.09. That indicates growth is slightly below trend and is far from the recession threshold of -0.7. The data in August so far has bee...

A new survey by PwC says 50% of employers plan layoffs. Signs of a U.S. manufacturing recession are appearing in Fed (Federal Reserve Bank of the U.S.) regional reports. The real estate sector, a major driver of economic growth, is slowing. Non-bank mortgage lenders are filing for...

Equity markets have clearly taken notice of rising inflation - and not in a good way. Conventional wisdom has traditionally said different things about how equities and bonds should behave in an inflationary environment - some hold to the notion that stocks should be protected from hi...

The problem for bonds is that German inflation can easily cross the ocean due to oil and natural gas supply tightening further as US producers export LNG and crude oil to Europe in search of higher spot prices. West Texas Intermediate Crude and US Natural Gas had a volatile week. ...