GBGR News and Press, Global Beta Momentum-Growth From 07/01/22

I am still forecasting a continuation of the current expansion. Yet I will gladly eat crow to realize a recession during the first half of the year. That will improve the chances for a market recovery in the second half of the year, which is a more important call for me than the e...

While everyone is focused on inflation, it is becoming increasingly clear that we’re on the cusp of deflation in everything but necessities such as food and energy. How do we know deflation is coming? We only have to look at soaring inventory-to-sales data from major retailers ...

Inflation eroded all of the nominal month-over-month gain for American households in May 2022. Political Calculations' initial estimate of median household income in May 2022 is $77,265, an increase of $702 (or 0.92%) from the initial estimate of $76,563 in April 2022. The BEA mad...

Since its all-time high last November, Bitcoin has plunged by about 72%, while stocks have shed 21%. You couldn't find two assets that are more different, yet their prices are moving in apparent lockstep. Does the collapse of cryptocurrencies have something to do with this year's ...

Back in January, I said inflation had peaked. This morning’s Core PCE data seals the deal for me – it looks like inflation peaked in February. Another big theme of mine in recent years was that the Fed was behind the curve both ways. So, defining inflation as an incr...

Regular investments into the market mechanically buys more (less) when prices fall (rise), relieving you of the task of estimating timely moments for investing. History suggests that when the S&P 500 falls 20% from its previous peak, there’s usually more pain to come before...

Spending on services rose in May, but spending on goods fell – all adjusted for inflation. Spending on durable goods continues to be handicapped by the ongoing shortage of new vehicles. “Real” spending on services rose by 0.3% in May from April, and by 4.7% ye...

I looked at 72 years of market data back to 1950. 21 had negative 1st half returns. 51 had positive 1st half returns. What happened in the 2nd half of each group offers some clues about what we can expect in the coming 6 months. The market had a rough 1 st ...

Mass Political Disapproval across the developed world. Yesterday, an analyst named Jim Bianco was quoted in MarketWatch comparing current conditions to 1966. 5yr breakevens have dropped a Full 1% in the last three months – from 3.59% to 2.59%. Einstein once said, ...

Personal income rose 0.5 percent in May, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Excluding personal transfer payments, personal income rose 0.7 percent in May and is up 8.3 percent over the latest 12-month period. The fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine an...