GBGR News and Press, Global Beta Momentum-Growth From 07/10/22

First of all, payroll figures out on Friday looked quite good. That is, wage inflation continues to moderate and unemployment is low at 3.6%. We analyze yield curves, technical data, prior bear markets and corporate earnings among other metrics looking for signs of a bottom. The d...

Last month, when the Federal Reserve hiked 75 bp instead of the 50 it had signaled, Chair Powell cited the unexpectedly strong CPI and elevated University of Michigan consumer inflation expectations. While inflation did accelerate, the core rate fell. Moreover, the Fed targets the PCE...

The late-nineties U.S. “tech” Bubble was financed, at the margin, by high-yield debt (telecom, in particular), speculative hedge fund levered finance, and GSE liquidity. The current backdrop is unique. The bottom line is that the situation in China continues to deter...

The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank runs a predictive model called GDPNow, which forecasts a decline of 1.9 percent for Q2 GDP as of today. After the longest growth cycle on record, from 2009-20, we had the shortest recession on record. While we agree with some of the insights for a ...

It will be a busy week for Fed speak as Williams talks about LIBOR on Monday, Barkin discusses recession on Tuesday, Waller speaks on Thursday and Bostic talks on Friday. Energy traders will have a lot to keep their eye on next week as President Biden makes a trip to the Middle East a...

Initial jobless claims remain historically healthy in the low 200K range, but the most recent week’s data did mark one of the highest readings of the year. The current week has historically been the worst of the year in terms of week-over-week moves only having seen unadjusted ...

Private payrolls posted a 381,000 gain in June. Gains in recent months have generally been broad-based. The June jobs report shows total nonfarm and private payrolls posted strong, albeit somewhat slower, gains. By Robert Hughes U.S. nonfarm p...

The massive Federal Reserve interventions provided a perverse incentive to take on extreme forms of risk. Currently, Wall Street continues to expect earnings to grow through the end of 2024 despite the growing risk of a recession. However, while estimates, and forward expectations...

Rates of change continue to improve across the economy. Don't be whipsawed by recession and inflation fears. The market and economy look positioned for a second half recovery. Stocks got a big lift at the open yesterday after China’s Ministry of Finance announced ...

Financial tightening by central banks is never good for financial assets. Consumers are being squeezed by high inflation and more restrictive, yet still accommodative, monetary policy. Commodity prices have more than doubled from their COVID lows. With inflation still in...