GBGR News and Press, Global Beta Momentum-Growth From 07/19/22

Last week, the Labor Department announced that its CPI rose 1.3% in June, higher than the economists’ consensus estimate of 1.1%. But core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose only 0.7% in June and just 5.9% in the past 12 months. The main reason for a higher CPI number is that...

The jobs data takes priority over GDP data in the calculus of how fast interest rates might be raised to combat elevated inflation. For jobs, the pre-pandemic peak is only now being fully recovered, with job vacancies abound and wages rising. Labor force growth is likely to be ver...

Anticipated inflation over the next twelve months based on bond prices has precipitously declined from over five percent to well under two. One potential reason is that an oncoming recession might seriously deflate prices, and quickly. Though, a recession is only somewhat more likely ...

Option skew, or S&P 500 volatility skew, is at its flattest level in 10 years. Option skew provides information on whether fund managers prefer to be buyers or sellers and which options they prefer (calls or puts). Although hedging and protecting equities using S&P 500 opt...

The US Dollar has recently shown strength. Inflation is rather high. The geopolitical situation is unstable. This article examines the present state of the American currency and possible effects on it caused by the geopolitical situation. The Dollar is still strong despite h...

The guidance in this season’s earnings reports could start to tell us how far earnings are likely to decline and how much is already priced in. The macroeconomic background is as challenging as we’ve seen in many years, to put it mildly. We see a powerful feedback lo...

While the goods-based economy is backing off a little from the overstimulated demand in 2021, it hasn’t backed off as much as expected, thereby frustrating the Fed’s vision of “temporary” inflation, as consumers continued to splurge on goods even as they shifte...

The inflation fears led to concern that the Fed would raise interest rates by a full percent when they next meet and that in turn produced selling in stocks. Non-US stocks continue to struggle and that will probably be the case until the dollar comes back down. Economies are big c...

July has started off higher for the markets. Not a massive win for the bulls but a step in the right direction. Sentiment is stretched to the downside, as the reliable Bank of America Bull/Bear Indicator has been stuck at zero for weeks - an indication of a buying opportunity - but in...

The US and eurozone June composite PMI had nearly converged at 52.3 and 52.0, respectively. The BOJ saw the economy expanding 2.9% this year and slowing to 1.9% next and 1.1% in 2024. In June, the ECB raised the TLTRO rate to its deposit rate (-0.50%), and banks repaid almost 75 b...