GBGR News and Press, Global Beta Momentum-Growth From 07/27/22

When has being a seller into a well-anticipated event with negative implications for the market ever made any sense? We have had 42 days full of hand-wringing and negative media to contemplate the July 27 Fed meeting. for me, the market has priced this in. After all the higher rat...

The headline number of 95.7 was a decrease of 2.7 from the final reading of 98.4 for June. "The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell to 141.3 from 147.2 last month." - Consumer Confidence Surve...

The M2 money supply in June was lower than its May level, and M2 has only increased at a very slow 1.7% annualized rate in the past six months. Monetary liquidity is still abundant, and credit spreads (leading indicators of bankruptcies) are only moderately elevated. Years and yea...

The Fed’s mandate is for stable prices and maximum employment. By understanding the trends within the labour market, we can gain valuable insight into the likely monetary policy actions of the Fed. With an undersupply of workers and cycle low in unemployment, the labour market ...

The Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board fell again in July, third drop in a row and eighth in the last 13 months. Within the expectations index, just one of the three components fell versus June. The outlook for the jobs market improved marginally in July as the ex...

In all fairness to the Atlanta Fed, some of last week’s statistical releases indicate an economic slowdown, but at a very slow pace, nothing like the rapid contraction that accompanied serious contractions in 2008-9 or 2020. Russia’s Gazprom last week notified major cust...

As inflation raged, central banks accelerated the pace of monetary policy tightening, aiming to slow the growth of aggregate demand and calm price pressures. In response to persistently high inflation and an upward drift in long-run inflation expectations, central banks are accelerati...

Most major economies are dealing with inflation highs not seen in decades. Market expectations of peak policy rates have declined since June, likely reflecting the significant slowdown in activity as well as recent commodity price declines. Tightening financial conditions as well ...

The 2-10 spread has been inverted for a while, and if the Fed is hell-bent on front-loading rate hikes this summer, the 3-month/10-year Treasury spread will invert soon. The Federal Reserve can cause a recession with rapid rate hikes in an economy that carries way too much financial l...

Consumer spending, industrial output, credit quality, and other indicators don’t suggest economic risk. The reduction of the deficit will contribute to the building of recessionary pressures. The best signals of a recessionary onset occur when a bulk of the yield spreads tu...