GBGR News and Press, Global Beta Momentum-Growth From 08/02/22

Over the course of the first six months of the year, real GDP declined by 0.63%. Today, the economy is only about 2.2% below its most recent trend, but it is a gigantic 26% below its long-term trend. Recession Lite seems like an apt descriptor for today's economy, because a lot of...

The final July results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers show overall consumer sentiment remained near record lows. The one-year inflation expectations fell to 5.2 percent as of late July. The plunge in consumer attitudes reflects a confluence of events with inf...

I look at the conditions for buying that were stated in the previous article. Those conditions have now been satisfied. I show how you can buy the bottom with relative safety. On June 16, I posted an article on Seeking Alpha, “How To Tell When the Bear Market ...

The S&P 500 rallied 4.3% (down 13.3% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 3.0% (down 9.6%). The Banks gained 2.1% (down 18.0%), and the Broker/Dealers recovered 4.8% (down 11.0%). The Transports advanced 5.8% (down 11.3%). Investment-grade bond funds posted outflows of $2.442 billion, whi...

At this moment, the difference between GDP and GDI has no historical precedent, and the GDI, in the first quarter, came with a positive number, while the GDP fell. As suggested by the resilience of private consumption in the second quarter, the labor market remained tight. Markets...

Inflation is still high, but it is no longer accelerating rapidly, and evidence of increasingly fragile economic activity is piling up. The headline surveys have weakened materially, especially in Europe, and the US economy entered a technical recession in the first half of the year. ...

Inventories have risen recently and there has been a lot of commentary about how this will negatively impact the economy. My brief overview of markets is that large growth stocks are still overvalued even as they led the recent rally. The sentiment about the economy is still quite...

We highlight the top three behavioral biases to avoid in the new, volatile market regime - and give tips on how investors can try to overcome them. Stocks rallied and yields fell last week after markets concluded the Fed’s pace of rate hikes will slow. We are less sanguine and ...

The S&P 500 rose 9.1% in July despite dire headlines of 40-year high inflation and the revelation of two straight quarters of negative GDP growth. A final buying burst took place last week around and after the Fed’s rate hike decision. Corporate bonds buttressed the ris...

Bonds went south in 2022 - all asset classes were negative, and investors received little benefit from international or non-US allocations (including EMs). As of June 30, according to Bloomberg data, EM credits were the worst-performing bond asset class YTD, returning -17.14%. The US ...