GRU News and Press, AB Svensk Ekportkredit ELEMENTS Linked to the MLCX Grains Index - Total Return From 05/18/22

We have been living under an illusion that the relationship between nominal GDP and the quantity of circulating currency is dead. Claims linking inflation to the size of the balance sheet may stem, in part, from focus by Fed officials on the size of the balance sheet in recent months....

Current Macro ag is coming in hot. Commodities futures are up across the board due to ongoing floods in the Midwest, and even snow still falling in some places. The one thing I am watching is wheat. The general condition of the winter crop did not help in finding a stable floor for pr...

India’s official ban of wheat exports may trigger a protectionist domino effect that will compound the global food shortage and inflation. The removal of agricultural exports due to the Russo-Ukraine war and Indian policy reduces the fungibility of grains triggering market seiz...

Our macroeconomic forecasting team assesses how the war and latest survey data have altered the economic outlook, policymaking and recession risks. Global growth was dragged lower, principally by steep contractions in Russia and mainland China. Barring the initial COVID-19 outbreak, M...

Food manufacturers are raising prices due to higher costs, but food inflation levels vary considerably between countries. Some EU consumers are already looking for cheaper options in supermarkets. The longer food companies continue to raise their prices, the higher the chance cons...

Based on the history of agriculture and manufacturing, automation and operating margins are positively correlated. As automation increases, labor’s share of revenue tends to decrease, and as labor share decreases, operating margins tend to increase. History suggests that ce...

The map of the Asset Allocation Committee’s market views is a buzz of activity this quarter. Coming into 2022, we anticipated slower growth compared with the steep recovery levels of 2021 and inflation that was declining but persistent—and problematic due to its origins ...

Low supply increases sensitivity to weather, and cold weather in the Northern Plains and Western Canada is said to be adversely affecting intended acreage among spring wheat farmers. An important difference between then and now is the availability of more sophisticated risk management...

Inflation, by any measure, has been building momentum dating back to mid-2020. In the US, overall consumer inflation reached 8.5% in March, with food inflation at 8.8%. Economic theory suggests that building inflation expectations makes inflation more challenging to tame. This appears...

The risk of double-digit inflation is real, as soaring commodity and agricultural input prices could have lagging and lasting effects on food prices. Cash is a traditional alternative to U.S. Treasuries from a diversification standpoint, but soaring inflation limits its typical store ...