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Much of last week’s economic focus was on the inflation report. Inflation was indeed pretty hot year over year, but that wasn’t unexpected. With CPI printing at 5% year over year, bond yields fell. But these are small moves, and the trend for rates is still up for now. ...

On the surface, conditions in the US look pretty fantastic these days. Prices for lots of goods and services are soaring. Job openings are at record highs. Does the historically low level of real risk-free yields on TIPS suggest that US economic growth will be anemic at best for as fa...

We expect the price of services to join the bull market in commodities soon. Bitcoin is considered an inflation hedge and store of value due to its guaranteed scarcity. Could Bitcoin turn on a dime and head higher? Bitcoin may be a paradise for traders comfortable with big swi...

We got another disappointing employment report last week. The US economy added 559,000 jobs in May, which was below expectations and disappointing. There are certainly remaining supply-side issues in the economy, which is what we should expect in a recovery from a supply shock. The pr...

Risk-adjusted performance for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to tick higher in May. GMI’s Sharpe ratio — a measure of risk-adjusted return – rose to 0.82 on a trailing 10-year basis through last month. That’s close to a pandemic high, but still...

The Global Market Index’s (GMI) expected risk premium held steady at 5.9% annualized in May, matching the previous month’s estimate. The framework for estimating equilibrium returns was initially outlined in a 1974 paper by Professor Bill Sharpe. Keep in mind, too, t...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average powered ahead another 654 points last month (+1.9%) to a new record level (34,529) and the S&P 500 also closed at a new monthly high (+0.6% to 4,204). The U.S. COVID-19 pandemic has essentially come to an end for now and stock prices have continued...

The major asset classes delivered across-the-board gains for a second month in a row in May. Everything apart from cash was up last month, led by a sizzling rally in foreign inflation-linked government bonds. The FTSE Russell World Inflation Index ex-US surged 4.0% last month, the...

This is a truly singular global recession and recovery, and it makes portfolio diversification both vital and challenging. At the moment, the item that tops the agenda for most of our clients is no big surprise: inflation, and what to do about it in portfolios. Inflation is usuall...

China’s “zero tolerance” warning to commodity speculators over the weekend sent prices of some metals and iron ore tumbling. Bloomberg reported the government had also threatened severe punishment for violators indulging in excessive speculation and fake news in t...