HYLD News and Press, High Yield From 10/18/22

Summary Global GDP growth is still expected to be positive in 2022 (excluding Russia) but is expected to fall fairly dramatically in 2023. The U.S. Q3 2022 earnings season has just begun, and the outlook is for lower but still positive revenue and earnings growth. Inflation wi...

Summary As has been the case in recent weeks, the stock market finds itself in a position where various technical factors, market internals, positioning and sentiment are suggesting this sell-off may be overdone and a short-covering rally due. While the ‘pain trade’ ...

Summary Financial markets have entered a period of head-spinning volatility. Consumer inflation remains at record highs across major developed economies. Higher yields will bring new income-generating opportunities and significant shifts in risk-return assessments. ...

Summary After the initial stages of the Ukraine crisis and amid the Federal Reserve’s aggressive hiking cycle, sector dispersion is now at 41%. The global financial crisis was led by financials and autos trading significantly wider, and tech/telecom was the driver of disper...

Summary For the most part, 2022 has unfolded largely on script, with inflation proving stubborn and the Federal Reserve seeking to cut off the spigot. Despite the general monetary trend toward stiff tightening on a global basis, individual countries continue to initiate moves to s...

Summary Until the war is over and energy markets have normalized, it is hard to put a floor on the euro, as the situation can deteriorate rather quickly. Further rate hikes by the Fed and aggressive QT will put more upside pressure on the dollar and more downside pressure on the e...

Summary When U.S. headline inflation dropped between June and July, it fueled a strong midsummer rally based on hopes that central banks might soon begin to ease their policy tightening. However, while we are not convinced the economic outlook is yet reflected in earnings outlooks...

Summary Rising prices continue to confound expectations that slowing global growth will ease inflation pressures. Financial market turbulence may be here to stay for some time. The ability to rebalance negatively correlated assets helps generate income and potential return whi...

Summary We believe it is unlikely that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will navigate a pivot to a less-hawkish stance before early in 2023. We expect China to grow at a meager 2%-3% pace in 2022, with the potential for these risks to bleed into 2023, as a slowing developed-market consumer...

Summary In September 2022, there is no denying that inflation is back, and with a vengeance, though we can still debate how quickly it will fade, and to what level. Since 2008, it has become fashionable to attribute all movements in interest rates to Fed action or inaction, and as...