HYLD News and Press, High Yield From 01/23/23

Summary China’s reopening, lower energy prices and cooling inflation reinforce our long-term positive view on equities. Yet, we think market optimism has come too soon. Stocks paused their rally and bond yields steadied after recession worries returned. We think we are starting t...

Summary High yield bonds are back above the inflation line. The Bloomberg U.S. High Yield Index now stands at 8.19%, which is now more than 100 basis points over our average inflation rate. It has been gradually creeping higher, partially because of the Fed’s rate manipulatio...

Summary The current slope of the US Treasury yield curve is inverted. Two-year yields are higher than 10-year yields, and to us that means that investors are focused on a few things. We’re starting to see a slowdown in interest-rate-sensitive sectors, most pronounced in US housin...

Summary Stocks don’t bottom until central banks have slashed short rates enough to drop them back below long, re-steepening the curve to positive sloping once more. HY bond prices typically bottom with equities once HY yield spreads have reached 800+ bps above similar-term treasu...

Summary Following a protracted period of rate hikes that began in March 2022, both bond yields and yield spreads are at multi-year highs. Strong fundamentals are due in part to fiscal prudence necessitated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The European Central Bank has concluded its myriad ...

Summary QQQ and the S&P 500 have dropped from all-time record overvaluations a year ago but are still trading at more than double their average ratios relative to the profits of their components. Real estate has fallen modestly from its all-time highs in recent months but is about 7...

Summary At 429 basis points, the spread of the major junk bond index to Treasuries is dangerously close to the “inside 400” level, which is where it spends most of its time in a booming economy. I would not call the U.S. economy “booming,” as there has been a...

Summary Stocks and bonds rallied as the Fed’s Whip Inflation Now project seems to be finally bearing some fruit. The slowdown in goods spending over the last year has been modest but entirely expected and offset by a rise in services spending. The Fed has spent the last year ...

Summary Markets may be underestimating the stickiness of inflation and central banks’ determination to beat it - and what that means for growth and corporate earnings potential. We favor fixed income and credit over equities, and investment grade over high yield. Should infla...

Summary Bonds were yielding nothing or just next to it for some time now, and didn’t seem to represent a decent investment opportunity. The Fed, in their meanderings, have changed all of this, and bonds are beginning to get more interesting lately. High-yield bonds are now on...